Ringgit to trade between 3.9839 and 3.9910, says AmBank Research

  • Forex
  • Monday, 25 Jun 2018

At 9 am(0100gmt), the local unit opened at 4.0480/0510 against the US dollar from Monday's 4.0600/0650.

KUALA LUMPUR: AmBank Research expects the ringgit to trade between its support level of 3.9839 and 3.9910 against the US dollar while its resistance is pegged at 4.0138 and 4.0242.

It said on Monday that without any significant economic data release for the day, it believes the market’s focus largely would be on developments on trade war. 

Last Friday, the ringgit rose 0.3% to 4.0022 against the dollar. It strengthened against the regional currencies - rupiah by 0.2% to 3519.40 and baht by 0.4% to 8.2251 but weakened against Singapore dollar by 0.1% to 2.9490 and peso by 0.02% to 13.3142. 

On the equities front, the FBM rose 0.1% to 1,694.1 despite a recording a net the outflow of foreign funds amounting RM444mil. 

Meanwhile, the 5-,7- and 10-year MGS yields remained unchanged at 3.850%, 4.010% and 4.230%, respectively. The CDS rose 0.28% to 105.59.

Crude oil prices, namely WTI and Brent rose 4.6% and 3.4% to US$68.58/barrel and US$75.55/barrel respectively amid Opec and its allies reached an agreement to boost the oil production target by one million barrels/day starting next month. 

However, there are concerns over some countries unable to meet the production increase target and most of the increase will be from the Saudi Arabia. 

Meanwhile, Stephen Innes, head of trading Asia Pacific at OANDA said the market was happy that Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus will be the new Bank Negara Malaysia governor.

He said this announcement as suggested a policy status quo, while other headlines that Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad sees fair value for US$ to the ringgit at 3.8. 

“Spot adjusted lower on the implication the new government does favour a stronger Ringgit but remain above the critical 4.0 level. 

“Also, higher oil prices post OPEC is lending some support, but the local markets will stay under tremendous stress from capital outflow and the prospect of waning equity markets given trade war risks.

“As such, my risk-reward index remains in the extremely negative territory for local investments,” said Innes.
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trade war , MGS yields


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