Odds rise on central bank raising rates at policy meeting tomorrow
JAKARTA: Indonesia’s top policymakers sought to shore up confidence in South-East Asia’s biggest economy, as bets grow that the central bank will raise interest rates for the second time in two weeks at an out-of-cycle policy meeting tomorrow.
Perry Warjiyo, sworn in as governor last week, said it was not an “emergency meeting”, but the rupiah jumped to a two-week high on hopes central bank actions will relieve persistent pressure on the country’s financial markets.
Alongside other emerging markets, Indonesia has seen an outflow of funds as US assets become more attractive due to rising interest rates.
Bank Indonesia (BI) on May 17 raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since November 2014 in a bid to bolster the fragile rupiah and stem capital outflows. Last Friday, it said it will hold an additional meeting on May 30 to discuss economic and monetary conditions.
“The dynamics offshore happen so quickly and market perceptions are formed quickly that there is a tendency that some became irrational,” Warjiyo told a briefing attended by other policymakers.
“These dynamics need to be responded to immediately to stabilise things.” He said the meeting will look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s June policy review, which is expected to raise US rates again.
BI’s next scheduled meeting is on June 27 and June 28, after the Eid al-Fitr holidays following the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.
This period is also a time of peak spending in the world’s biggest Muslim-majority country, adding to pressure on policymakers to maintain stability.
At the news conference yesterday, Darmin Nasution, the coordinating minister of economics, said regulators will prioritise stability in the short-term and economic growth in the medium-term.
“We are not in a crisis. These are to strengthen things, to respond to dynamics,” said Nasution.
Other Indonesian markets also rallied, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield falling to 7.223% at noon from 7.545% last Friday. Jakarta’s main stock index rose 1.3%.
Last week, Warjiyo promised to use interest rate policy to stabilise the rupiah in the near-term and to be “more pre-emptive” and ahead of the curve on monetary settings.
The rupiah has been among the worst performers among Asian currencies this year, losing about 3% of its value, as investors slash their holdings in emerging markets in response to rising US Treasury yields.
DBS said that weaker sentiment on emerging market debt had pushed several central banks including Argentina and Turkey to take a more hawkish stance to control capital outflow risks and maintain financial markets stability.
“Against this backdrop, further BI rate hikes may be needed, with the next one possibly as early as this week,” it said.
Economists at Citi, Morgan Stanley, Bank Danamon and Trimegah Securities also predicted a rate rise, while Natixis said it expected the central bank to be guided by a 2013 precedent and take decisive moves.
The last time BI held an extraordinary meeting was the November 2014 one that raised its main policy rate, to tackle rising inflation expectations.
“Indonesia faces the possibility of having to bring down its current account deficit at the expense of GDP growth, as in 2013,” Citi economist Helmi Arman said in a note.
When Indonesia last faced such market volatility in 2013, during the so-called “taper tantrum”, policymakers took a series of measures to restore calm.
These included BI raising rates by 175 basis points, allowing the exchange rate to depreciate and preparing bilateral swap agreements, while the government let in more imports to maintain domestic prices.
Policymakers have already repeated some of these measures.
Warjiyo said the “dual intervention” that BI is currently doing in the currency and bond markets is similar to 2013.
BI has also announced an intention to broaden swap agreements with Japan to bolster its “second line of defence”.
Meanwhile, the government has allowed more food imports to keep prices low and cap energy prices with larger subsidies.
Officials are also working on improving tax incentives to attract investment.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the government would improve debt management and governance of state firms, especially those working on infrastructure.
Many state firms dominating large swathes of the economy have seen debt levels balloon.
However, officials say the economy is now in a much better condition compared to 2013, with larger foreign-exchange reserves, greater fiscal space and a smaller current account deficit.
“We are ready to take any kind of policy to support Indonesia’s economy,” Indrawati said, adding that if short-term measures mean slightly lower growth, “then that consequence has to be accepted”. — Reuters