BEIJING: China’s carbon emissions will probably peak on or before 2030, a survey of industry participants found.
About 90% of 260 stakeholders in the nation’s carbon market gave that forecast, while more than half said the milestone would be reached by 2025 at the latest, according to the survey, which was conducted by China Carbon Forum, ICF International Inc and SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co between March and July.
The results underscored industry confidence in China’s efforts to meet a target of capping emissions by 2030 as the nation shifts to renewable energy and curbs coal power. The world’s biggest clean-energy investor has also pledged to start a national carbon market later this year to reduce emissions.
Almost 50% of participants in the survey expect China to complete the carbon market by 2020 with all key segments in place, while 44% anticipate that will happen between 2021 and 2025.
Among survey responses since 2013, “we saw a very consistent expectation that China’s carbon market will be fully functional around 2020,” Dimitri de Boer, vice-chairman of China Carbon Forum, said at a press conference in Beijing. “This requires lots of investment in capacity building and in getting all stakeholders aligned.”
The average carbon price is forecast to be 74 yuan (US$11) per tonne in 2020, almost double the 38 yuan estimated in 2017. By 2025, the price may surge to 108 yuan a tonne. — Bloomberg