Asia set to drive global trade surge to US$68.5 trillion

KUALA LUMPUR: Asia is poised to drive global trade surge to up to US$68.5 trillion by 2050, according to forecasts from HSBC's Trade Winds report.

Led by a burst of intra-Asian trade that will lift the region's share of global exports to 27% by 2050 from 17% at present, the surge will mark a third wave of globalisation anchored by new technologies and increasing economic integration, said the report.

Trade Winds said Asia-Pacific's share of global exports is forecast to rise from around a third in 2015 to 46% in 2050; Western Europe's share is expected to decline from 34% to 22%, and North America's to fall from 11% to 9%.

China should extend its lead as the world's leading exporter, with its growing influence in Asia further extended by projects such as the One Belt, One Road initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

India also has the potential for strong growth, and is projected to outpace China, it said, adding that growth in merchandise exports from India to average 6% a year in the 2025-2050 period, compared with just under 5% a year for China.

Asia's position as the leading edge of technological and supply chain innovation gives the region a unique opportunity to benefit from this next wave of globalisation, HSBC regional head of commercial banking of Asia-Pacific, Paul Skelton, said.

Meanwhile, the report said as shifting demographics and economic catch up, almost three billion people are expected to join the middle class by 2050, most of whom would be in emerging markets, leading to significant shifts in trade patterns. - Bernama