Fed rate hike 'no-go more likely than most people think'

NEW YORK: DoubleLine Capital co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach said on Sunday that the Federal Reserve may hesitate to raise rates given rocky economic and financial conditions, though the Paris attacks alone are unlikely to play a factor in next month's decision.

The influential money manager, who recently warned that the U.S. Federal Reserve should not tighten monetary policy in December, said the Paris attacks could pressure stock markets around the globe, "which we know Fed officials have been watching, even if they try not to admit it."

Gundlach said about a rate hike next month that many economists believe will occur: "Certainly No-Go more likely than most people think. These markets are falling apart." Los Angeles-based DoubleLine oversees $80 billion in assets under management.

Gundlach cited a number of asset classes that are signaling deteriorating conditions: The S&P Leveraged Loan Index, which is at a four-year low, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond Exchange-Traded Fund "very near a four-year low" and the CRB Commodity Index at a 13-year low. "You also have the Eurozone doubling down on stimulus. Fed raising rates? Really?"

Gundlach said emerging markets may lead developed markets lower against the backdrop of rising borrowing costs, noting that Latin American currencies have crashed and Middle East currencies are down. "No wonder" the yield premium demanded by the markets from emerging markets has been rising, he said.

Last year, Gundlach correctly predicted that U.S. Treasury yields would fall, not rise as many others had forecast, because inflationary pressures were non-existent and technical factors, including aging demographics, were at play.

Since the spring, Gundlach has said the U.S. economy and risk markets cannot digest a premature Fed hike.- Reuters