Interest-rate futures prices may be in for mild pullback


MDEX Interest-rate futures. A weekly column by G.M. Teoh.

Last Close (June 6): 96.92 points, up 0.03 of a point from a week ago. Week’s high: 96.92 points; Week’s low: 96.89 points. 

The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) interest-rate futures prices ended the week marginally higher boosted by light buying support. 

The December 2003 futures prices settled the week higher at 96.92, up 0.03 of a point from previously. Fluctuation for the week ranged from 96.92 to 96.89 points. 

Volume fell to 883 from 1,383 contracts a week ago. Open-interests at Thursday’s close eased to 28,532 from 28,810 contracts. 

Based on chart the December 2003 interest-rate futures prices closed the week neutral-to-slightly positive and are set for more congestion trading this week. 

Chart support for this week is revised higher to the 96.87–96.89 levels. Chart resistance is raised to 96.93–96.95. 

The 12-week exponentially smoothed moving-average price lines (ESA-lines) ended unchanged at 96.88 points. Closing prices above the ESA-line level indicate the market’s immediate trend is positive. 

Weekly stochastics: The weekly stochastics retained their sell signal of a week ago and closed the week negative. The weekly oscillators per cent K and D settled sharply lower at 57.45% and 71.47% respectively. Based on the stochastics the immediate-term market could enter a mild pullback. 

Weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD): The weekly MACD flashed the buy signal last week and indicated the immediate trend is positive. The weekly MACD and trigger-line closed higher at 0.021 and 0.020 of a point respectively. 

Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI): The weekly RSI trended higher and closed in the positive territory at 57.05 points. Analysis of the weekly RSI shows the underlying strength of the market is slightly positive. 

Weekly Momentum Index (MI): The weekly MI remained above the 100-point mark and closed slightly lower at 100.02. Analysis of the weekly MI shows interest-rate futures would stay firm this week. 

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