Futures seen to trend higher

LAST close (March 21): 96.87 points, up 0.01 from a week ago. Week’s high: 96.89 points: Week’s low: 96.85 points. 

The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) interest-rate futures prices ended the week higher, lifted by buying-interests linked to expectations that the coming economic stimulus package due for release any time now would bring interest-rates lower.  

The June 2003 futures prices ended the week slightly higher at 96.87 points, up 0.01 of a point from previously. Trades for the week ranged from 96.89 to 96.85 points.  

Total trading volume for the week increased to 6,093 contracts from 6,052 contracts a week ago. Open-interests as at Thursday’s close declined slightly to 23,603 contracts from 24,717 contracts previously.  

Chart-wise, the June 2003 interest-rate futures prices ended the week constructive and are set to hold steady in band trading this week. Chart support for this week stays unchanged at the 96.84-96.83 level. Chart-resistance for this week is adjusted higher to the 96.88-96.90 level.  

The 12-week exponentially smoothed moving-average price line (ESA) remained flat and ended slightly higher at 96.85 points. Closing prices above the ESA-line on Friday signalled that a positive cycle had started.  

Weekly stochastics: The weekly stochastics stay negative with its sell-signal intact during Friday’s close. The weekly oscillator per cent K and D closed lower at 18.53% and 26.57% respectively. Analysis of the stochastics indicates that the market is slightly oversold. 

Weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD): The weekly MACD retained its bullish signal during Friday’s close and indicated that the positive momentum could be sustained this week. The weekly MACD and trigger-line closed the week unchanged at 0.017 and 0.016 of a point respectively.  

Weekly relative strength index (RSI): The weekly RSI held steady and closed the week higher in the positive territory at 55.19 points. Analysis of the weekly RSI indicates that the market’s immediate underlying strength is bullish and may likely trend higher this week.  

Weekly momentum index (MI): The weekly MI remained above the 100-point mark and closed fractionally higher at 100.20 points. Analysis of the weekly MI indicates that the interest-rate futures prices would likely trend higher this week. 

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