Interest-rate futures trend stays


Last Close (March 14): 96.84 points, off 0.02 of a point from a week ago. Week’s high: 96.89 points; Week’s low: 96.85 points. 

The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) interest-rate futures prices closed the week higher supported by active buying on ideas that the coming economic stimulus package due on April 7 would result in unchanged-to-lower interest rates. 

The June 2003 futures prices ended the week slightly higher at 96.86, up 0.02 of a point from previously. Trading range for the week widened from 96.89 to 96.85 points. 

Volume for the week jumped to 6,052 from 596 contracts a week ago. Open-interests at Thursday’s close eased slightly to 24,717 from 24,528 contracts. 

Based on chart, the June 2003 interest-rate futures prices closed the week positive and are expected to trend higher this week. Chart support for this week is adjusted higher to the 96.84–96.83 levels. Chart resistance is unchanged at 96.86–96.88. 

The 12-week exponentially smoothed moving-average price lines (ESA-lines) remained horizontal and closed unchanged at 96.84 points. Closing prices above the ESA-line on Friday shows the market has started a bullish cycle. 

Weekly stochastics: The weekly stochastics held on to their sell signal and signalled the bearish cycle is not over. The weekly oscillators per cent K and D closed lower at 17.86% and 41.73% respectively. 

Weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD): The weekly MACD ended with its bullish signal intact and indicated more upside trading this week. The weekly MACD and trigger-line ended unchanged at 0.017 and 0.016 of a point respectively. 

Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI): The weekly RSI reversed direction and ended higher in the positive territory at 54.30 points. Analysis of the weekly RSI shows the market’s immediate underlying strength would remain neutral-to-slightly bullish this week. 

Weekly Momentum Index (MI): The weekly MI settled above the 100-point mark and closed slightly higher at 100.25. Analysis of the weekly MI shows interest-rate futures prices would remain in band trading this week. 

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