Interest-rate futures likely to hold steady


LAST close (Jan 24): 96.83 points, off 0.02 points from a week ago. Week’s high: 96.85 points: Week’s low: 96.82 points. 

The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (Mdex) interest-rate futures prices remained in band trading last week and closed with small gains. 

The March 2003 futures prices ended the week lower at 96.83 points, up 0.02 of a point from a week ago. Trading range remained narrow from 96.85 to 96.82 points.  

Total trading volume for the week improved to 2,130 contracts from 1,398 contracts a week ago. Open-interests as at Tuesday’s close increased to 22,853 contracts from 21,971 contracts a week ago.  

Chart-wise, the March 2003 interest-rate futures prices closed the week on a friendly note and are expected to continue with its tight band-trading this week. Chart support for this week remains unchanged from a week ago at the 96.81-96.80 level. Chart-resistance is adjusted lower to the 96.84-96.86 level.  

The 12-week exponentially smoothed moving-average price line (ESA) edged higher and settled at 96.81 points. Closing price above the ESA-line on Friday shows that the market’s short-term cycle is still positive.  

Weekly stochastics: The weekly stochastics retained its buy-signal during Friday’s close and indicated that the market would stay positive this week. The weekly oscillator per cent K and D ended higher at 58.33% and 47.34% respectively.  

Weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD): The weekly MACD turned negative on Friday’s close and indicated the prospects of a lower market this week. The weekly MACD and trigger-line ended the week lower at 0.008 and 0.009 of a point respectively.  

Weekly relative strength index (RSI): The weekly RSI closed the week slightly lower in the positive territory at 52.06 points. Analysis of the weekly RSI indicates that the market’s immediate underlying strength is neutral-to-slightly bullish.  

Weekly momentum index (MI): The weekly MI remained above the 100-point mark on Friday’s close and settled slightly higher at 100.04 points. Analysis of the weekly MI indicates that the interest-rate futures prices are in a positive phase and should hold steady this week. 

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