Underlying strength has turned bullish


LAST close (Jan 10): 96.81 points, up 0.02 points from a week ago. Week’s high: 96.87 points: Week’s low: 96.80 points. 

The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (Mdex) interest-rate futures prices closed the week positive after fresh and technical buying lifted the market higher in active trading. 

The March 2003 futures prices settled the week higher at 96.81 points, up 0.02 points from previously. Trades for the week ranged widely from 96.87 points to 96.80 points. 

Total trading volume for the week rose to 2,265 contracts from 292 contracts a week ago. Open-interests as at Tuesday’s close increased to 21,539 contracts from 21,114 contracts a week ago.  

Chart-wise, the March 2003 interest-rate futures prices ended the week slightly positive and are likely to trend higher this week. Chart support for this week is adjusted higher from a week ago to the 96.80-96.78 level. Chart-resistance is revised higher to the 96.85-96.87 level.  

The 12-week exponentially smoothed moving-average price line (ESA) advanced marginally and closed at 96.81 points. Closing price at the ESA-line level indicates that the market is in a neutral phase.  

Weekly stochastics: The weekly stochastic gave the buy-signal during Friday’s close and indicated that the upward move would continue this week. The weekly oscillator per cent K and D finished higher at 45.16% and 38.99% respectively.  

Weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD): The weekly MACD called for more weakness in the immediate term and settled the week with its negative signal intact. The weekly MACD and trigger-line closed the week lower at 0.008 and 0.011 points respectively.  

Weekly relative strength index (RSI): The weekly RSI continued with its recovery and closed the week slightly higher in the positive territory at 53.17 points. Analysis of the weekly RSI shows that the market’s immediate underlying strength had turned bullish.  

Weekly momentum index: The weekly MI settled below the 100-point mark on Friday and closed fractionally lower at 99.96 points. Analysis of the weekly MI indicates that the interest-rate futures prices are still in a bearish phase and trading would remain sideways this week. 

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