Interest-rate futures to remain in consolidation trading


Last Close (Jan 3): 96.79 points, up 0.01 of a point from a week ago. Week’s high: 96.79 points: Week’s low: 96.75 points. 

The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) interest-rate futures prices trended in a narrow 0.04 of a point range and closed a quiet session slightly higher. 

The March 2003 futures prices settled the week higher at 96.79 points, up 0.01 of a point from a week ago. Trades for the week ranged from 96.79 to 96.75 points. 

Volume for the week improved to 292 from 57 contracts a week ago. Open-interests at Thursday’s close rose marginally to 21,114 from 21,038 contracts. 

Based on chart, the March 2003 interest-rate futures prices closed the week neutral and are expected to stay in consolidation trading this week. Chart support for this week is unchanged from a week ago at the 96.75–96.73 levels. 

Chart resistance is pegged at the 96.78–96.80 levels. 

The 12-week exponentially smoothed moving-average price line (ESA-line) trended sideways and closed unchanged at 96.80 points. The closing price below the ESA-line for the past two weeks indicates the market is in a bearish phase. 

Weekly stochastics: The weekly stochastics expanded on their sell signal of a week ago and indicated the bearish momentum would continue this week.  

The weekly oscillators per cent K and D settled lower at 29.63% and 36.98% respectively. 

Weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD): The weekly MACD stayed bearish for the immediate term and ended the week with its sell-signal in place. The weekly MACD and trigger-line finished lower at 0.007 and 0.011 of a point respectively. 

Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI): The weekly RSI retraced earlier losses and ended the week slightly higher in the negative territory at 48.89 points. Analysis of the weekly RSI indicates the market’s immediate underlying strength is still bearish. 

Weekly Momentum Index (MI): The weekly MI remained below the 100-point mark on Friday and ended slightly lower at 99.92. Analysis of the weekly MI shows interest-rate futures prices are in a negative phase and the downward pressure could remain this week. 

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