YANGON: This year’s El Niño could potentially intensify into a Super El Niño, raising concerns among experts about possible drought conditions.
According to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean are showing signs of the development of an El Niño phenomenon.
Forecasts from climate models of the International Meteorological Organisation indicate that a weak El Niño may begin in June and could strengthen into a strong El Niño by the end of 2026.
Weather observer Win Naing also noted on social media that there is a two-thirds (67 per cent) probability that the phenomenon could reach strong or very strong levels.
He added that the likelihood of it escalating into a Super El Niño has increased from around 25 percent to 33 per cent.
Citing a statement by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the expert said forecasts for the June–August 2026 period indicate signs of drought across South-East Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
Myanmar and neighbouring South-East Asian countries are expected to face a high probability of dry weather conditions. Lower Myanmar, including Ayeyawady, Yangon, Bago, and Tanintharyi regions, along with Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines, are forecast to experience a 40 to 50 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall, particularly during the June, July, and August monsoon season, which is critical for rice cultivation.
Although El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean, it is often associated with irregular rainfall patterns, rising daytime temperatures, unusual storm activity and extreme weather events such as droughts.
The DMH has therefore urged relevant sectors and the public to make early preparations and said it will continue issuing timely updates on the development of El Niño conditions.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, strong easterly winds push warm surface waters toward Asia while colder water rises along the western coast of the Americas.
When these winds weaken, warm water shifts back toward the central and eastern Pacific, causing sea surface temperatures in those areas to rise significantly above normal.
El Niño events generally occur every two to seven years and can last from nine months to more than a year. - Eleven Media/ANN
