Japanese airlines’ lucrative European routes could become a victim of simmering tensions between China and Japan because access to airspace is a potential lever for Beijing, aviation professionals have warned.
However, they said outright closure of Chinese airspace remained unlikely because it would snarl regional air traffic and embroil Chinese carriers.
Aviation observers in China have recently discussed the likelihood of Beijing restricting or forbidding Japanese carriers from overflying the country as a new retributory tactic in the wake of mass Japan-bound flight cancellations.
Bookings for flights to Japanese destinations have plunged since late last year after a major row erupted between Beijing and Tokyo following remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in November, when she said that Japan could respond militarily to a potential attack on Taiwan.
Widespread flight cancellations and official advisories against visiting Japan have been among Beijing’s retaliatory measures so far, with pilots warning that curtailment of access to Chinese airspace would mark a major escalation.
“If China weaponises airspace access, it will be more consequential than cancelling flights because the busy Japan-Europe air traffic and cargo will take a hit, with some routes facing suspension,” said a European pilot with a leading budget carrier in Shanghai.
“This is a card in Beijing’s hand and a vulnerability for Japan as the latter’s airlines will be squeezed.”
Since the closure of Russian airspace in February 2022, after Moscow fought back against Western sanctions tied to its invasion of Ukraine, All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) have been forced to shift flight paths southwards, over China.
Checks on flight-tracking websites show almost all flights from Tokyo to European hubs such as London, Paris and Frankfurt enter Chinese airspace near Shanghai shortly after leaving Japan. They traverse vast expanses of central and western China, including the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, before entering Central Asia.
“The worst-case scenario may be that Japanese airlines are singled out by an entry ban,” the pilot said. “Then, on top of Russia-induced re-routing and soaring fuel prices amid the Middle East conflict, they will be left with very few alternatives ... it will be dire for them.
“Japanese operators are waking up to this reality but they can do little to address this.”
But South Korean pilot Jang Kwang-chol, who used to fly to Europe and is now based in China, said that China, as a major aviation power, was unlikely to resort to such extreme measures.
“Such a move against Japan would be interpreted internationally as disrupting global aviation,” he said. “Besides, Chinese firms also use Japanese airspace, usually above Hokkaido, for services to North America.
“A total closure targeting Japan is nearly impossible since it would inflict damage to China’s standing ... Beijing won’t go that far. But if Beijing slow-rolls overflight approvals, limits entries or applies bureaucratic hurdles, it can deftly and selectively make Japanese airlines suffer.”
He added that if approvals from China became slower and less predictable, JAL and ANA would have to build buffers for routing, fuelling, crew staffing and aircraft rotation across their extensive European network at extra cost.
Jang said that while all airlines planned for contingencies, he doubted Beijing would play the airspace card when it had other points of leverage.
“Airspace access is a matter of sovereignty but it is also based on reciprocity,” he said. “It’s hard for one country to unilaterally add new, onerous requirements to internationally adopted standard application procedures without facing any repercussions.” -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
