SEOUL: North Korea’s sharply worded condemnation of recent US strikes on Iran has fuelled debate over whether its leader Kim Jong Un feels unsettled by the dramatic downfalls of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
And experts said the lesson for Kim may be less about fear than survival.
Rather than pushing him towards talks with Washington, such events could reinforce his belief that only a credible nuclear deterrent guarantees regime security – a strategic difference that may embolden, rather than frighten, Pyongyang as it watches both the military action and its political aftermath, they pointed out.
In a statement on March 1 carried by the Korean Central News Agency, Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson denounced what it described as “the shameless rogue act of the US and Israel” and “an illegal act of aggression”. The statement avoided mentioning US President Donald Trump by name.
Deterrence over dialogue
The removal of Maduro in January and the subsequent US-backed operation that eliminated Khamenei marked a rare sequence of regime-toppling actions against leaders openly hostile to Washington.
Some experts say the developments inevitably resonate in Pyongyang and that the back-to-back removals of anti-US leaders complicate Kim’s calculus, particularly regarding whether to accept a potential summit.
“North Korea may focus on the fact that Iran was ultimately attacked despite pursuing nuclear negotiations and attempting to reach certain agreements,” said Dr Lim Eul-chul, professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.
“There is virtually zero chance that Pyongyang trusts the sincerity of Washington’s offer of ‘unconditional dialogue’.”
Lim said for Kim, the lesson may be sobering: engagement does not necessarily guarantee security.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a policy review session held in February at the Ninth Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, that he has left the door open to talks with Washington if it respects the North’s “current status, as defined in the North Korean Constitution, and drops its hostile policy”.
Kim referred to North Korea’s constitutional designation of itself as a nuclear weapons state, a condition the US has consistently rejected
Trump has expressed interest in meeting Kim during his upcoming planned visit to Beijing in April, but prospects remain uncertain.
Lim argues that what unfolded in Iran goes beyond symbolic pressure.
“The years of precise intelligence accumulation that enabled the US to eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader, with the swift execution demonstrated in ‘Operation Epic Fury’, represent more than a simple warning to Kim Jong Un – they amount to an existential threat,” he said.
According to Lim, Pyongyang is “fully aware that the US intelligence-gathering capabilities and strike patterns displayed in Iran could be applied to North Korea in the same way, or even more precisely”.
Rather than rushing to the negotiating table, such developments could reinforce Kim’s belief that only a credible nuclear deterrent guarantees survival.
“Without provoking Trump, North Korea is expected to maintain a low-key posture on the surface,” Lim said.
“Rather than engaging in loud provocations, it will exercise patience, concentrating all national capabilities on turning the country into a vast fortress under the conviction that only a ‘balance of terror through nuclear weapons’ guarantees survival,” added Lim.
Dr Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, echoed Lim, saying that Kim will closely observe not only the military operation, but also its political aftermath.
“Kim Jong Un will notice that Iran’s Supreme Leader of 37 years was killed with members of his family. He will see footage of Iranians celebrating in the streets and hear about expatriates seeking a role in the political transition,” Easley said.
“He will no doubt take steps to avoid a similar fate for his family and North Korea.”
According to Seoul’s Unification Ministry in January, Kim has already replaced commanders of three of the four units responsible for his security and protection over the past three years.
Catalyst for dialogue?
However, others pointed out that the fear of a similar fate to Maduro and Khamenei could push Kim towards renewed diplomacy, in a bid to avoid a direct clash with Trump.
Dr Yang Moo-jin, distinguished professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said: “Rather than rejecting the US overture, Kim might start making moves to avoid prompting President Trump’s displeasure.”
Another expert said that North Korea’s potential lacklustre ties with its allies could push Pyongyang towards dialogue with Washington.
Dr Cho Han-bum, a distinguished research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said: “If the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end, North Korea-Russia relations could loosen, which would put Pyongyang at a disadvantage, and ties with China have not significantly improved.
“Considering that opportunities for negotiation may diminish as President Trump moves into the latter half of his term, dialogue (with Washington) may be Kim’s only remaining exit.”
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Pyongyang have significantly strengthened military ties, with North Korea reportedly supplying artillery shells and other munitions to support Russia’s war effort, while deepening high-level exchanges and defense cooperation.
Analysts say that if the war winds down, the strategic value Russia currently places on North Korea could decline, potentially reducing Pyongyang’s diplomatic leverage.
Despite heated rhetoric, North Korea’s actions suggest restraint.
On March 1, while tensions escalated in the Middle East, Kim visited a cement factory rather than a military unit – a symbolic gesture that some interpret as signalling confidence and continuity.
For now, Pyongyang appears to be calibrating its tone – condemning Washington’s actions while avoiding personal confrontation with Trump —– as it weighs whether dialogue offers opportunity or unacceptable risk. - The Korea Herald/ANN
