BANGKOK: Thailand could face renewed friction with Cambodia as the incoming administration prepares to scrap MOU 44—an agreement tied to negotiations over offshore oil and gas resources—while Phnom Penh is expected to keep up pressure across multiple fronts.
The assessment says Cambodia is unlikely to pause what it describes as a three-front campaign: the border, the international arena, and the information space.
Even as diplomacy takes centre stage, it warns that provocations may continue along the frontier and online, ranging from forest fires and disinformation to incidents involving live rounds, often attributed to “undisciplined” Cambodian troops.
It argues Thailand should treat the loss of the Preah Vihear case as a key lesson and be ready for a sustained diplomatic effort led by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet.
Phnom Penh is seeking international allies to frame Cambodia as the victim, including outreach to France for historical and technical border information, and interviews with foreign media alleging Thailand has occupied territory using shipping containers and barbed wire—leaving 80,000 people unable to return home.
Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn then took the issue to the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), repeating allegations in an effort to increase pressure on Thailand.
In response, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow used the same forum to reject Cambodia’s claims and spotlight transnational online scam operations, describing cross-border internet fraud as a global human-rights crisis linked to weak rule of law in countries used as bases by criminal networks.
The assessment also points to Thai security briefings for international media and foreign security agencies at the Chong Chom–O Smach area in Surin province, where Thai troops have taken control, to highlight what it calls a large-scale scam hub allegedly tied to Cambodian business interests and “grey” Chinese actors.
It cites reports of continued arrests of Chinese nationals crossing into Thailand, including by a marine task force in Chanthaburi, with some admitting involvement in cybercrime networks.
Thai authorities have also pushed back on claims aired at the UNHRC—particularly the displacement figure of 650,000—saying it is exaggerated and reiterating that some areas have long been encroached upon despite Thailand’s refusal to recognise those claims.
They argue certain zones must be secured because they were previously used as bases to attack civilians and Thai troops, and say force deployments remain in line with the ceasefire joint statement signed on Dec 27, 2025, which called for each side to maintain positions after the ceasefire.
Next week, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is expected to convene the National Security Council to assess border risks and prepare a handover brief for the next government.
The Prime Minister has also raised concerns about limited contingency funds while Thailand remains under a caretaker administration, stressing the need to ensure readiness, including procurement of necessary equipment.
The assessment argues the likelihood of another round of border confrontation has not disappeared—especially if the new government proceeds with cancelling MOU 44 and political pressures harden positions on both sides. - The Nation/ANN
