The White House declined on Wednesday to comment on reports that US President Donald Trump is weighing whether to cancel or delay a US$11 billion arms package to Taiwan, as he seeks to keep an expected April summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on track amid pressure from Beijing.
“I don’t have any announcement or updates to share,” said White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.
On Monday, Trump told journalists he had discussed the potential sales with Xi.
“I’ve talked to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a determination pretty soon,” Trump said earlier this week when asked about Xi’s opposition to the arms sale, Washington’s largest ever, adding that he has a “very good relationship with President Xi”.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the proposed US arms sale to Taiwan has been thrown into limbo amid an intensifying pressure campaign from Beijing.
The US president’s comments have raised concern that he is violating the spirit of the “Six Assurances”, one of the framework documents governing US-Taiwan-Mainland dynamics, under which Washington pledged not to consult with or get pre-approval from Beijing involving weapon sales to the self-ruled island.
The assurances, crafted in 1982 by the Ronald Reagan administration, aimed to reassure Taiwan of Washington’s ongoing commitment.
“Beijing has sought for decades to condition Washington to consult with it ahead of Taiwan arms sales,” Ryan Hass, China director at the Brookings Institution and a former director with the National Security Council, said on X. “Previous administrations have refused, in line with Six Assurances. Regardless of what Trump decides, Trump has gifted Xi a win by setting new precedent.”
Others were more pointed. “Under no circumstances should any US president ever weigh any Taiwan arms sale vis-a-vis the possibility of a Beijing visit,” said Sean King, senior vice-president with Park Strategies, a consultancy. “Taiwan needs protection and we should provide it as we see fit.”
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. But Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed by law to supply it with weapons.
The Chinese embassy in Washington said China is firmly opposed to any arms sales to the “Taiwan region”, adding that it expected the US to “handle the issue of arms sales in Taiwan with prudence”.
Trump is trying to walk a fine line, analysts said. “He doesn’t want to look weak, and so he wants to handle it in a way that he doesn’t offend Xi Jinping and undermine the prospects of having a good summit,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, who added that there is ambiguity in the Six Assurances language, which is US policy and not a law.
“But he also wants to be seen as tough. And he doesn’t want to be seen as abandoning Taiwan. He knows there’s enormous support in Congress for Taiwan.”
Some in Congress were quick to jump on the suggestion that Trump would delay the package. “It’s unacceptable for Trump to run America’s Taiwan policy or arms sales decisions by Beijing for pre-clearance,” Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee said on social media.
Trump has in recent months sought to avoid taking any moves that could jeopardise a trade truce or otherwise have US-China relations return to the depths seen last year during a protracted trade war and harsh trans-Pacific rhetoric that jarred global financial markets and inhibited corporate investment.
This also comes amid evidence that China’s growing leverage is giving the White House pause. Trump rolled back tariffs in excess of 140 per cent last year after China halted shipments of strategic rare earth minerals and stopped buying US soybeans that hit Trump’s rural supporters hard.
In another recent example of what appears to be an effort by Trump to avoid jeopardising the summit, the Pentagon on Friday announced – and then abruptly withdrew – its latest list of Chinese military companies spanning the biotech, AI, drone and semiconductor sectors.
“The clear signal coming from the Trump administration is that it simply wants to maintain the current status quo ahead of April’s summit and avoid an escalatory cycle similar to what happened in October,” shortly before Trump and Xi met in Busan and agreed to a one-year trade truce, said Beacon Policy Advisors in a report.
Analysts said they expect Trump to find some face-saving way to postpone the arms sale.
“Washington will likely delay but not cancel the arms package for Taiwan until after Trump’s visit,” said Jeremy Chan, senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “Xi clearly messaged in his phone call to Trump earlier this month that another arms package before April could imperil the visit, and neither side wants that to happen.”
Key developments to watch include when the US announces its next arms package to Taiwan, how large it will be and what impact it will have on the bilateral trade truce, added Chan, a former US official in the US consulate in Shenyang, adding that he doubts any new package will come before June.
Analysts added that delaying Taiwan arms sales is hardly unprecedented.
In 2019, a US$8.1 billion package of 66 F-16V fighter aircraft and related parts was reportedly delayed as the White House sought to hammer out a trade deal with Beijing. And in 2017 a US$1.4 billion arms package was held up while Washington tried to elicit China’s help in negotiating with North Korea.
“It’s just not unusual for people to look and say, ‘Oh, we have something coming up’,” said Glaser. “That’s part of diplomacy. It’s about minimising the negative impact when you make a decision.”
Analysts said another concern regarding the US president’s potential delay or cancellation of the US$11 billion arms package is whether Taiwan’s legislature, the Legislative Yuan, comes up with the money to pay for it, with the island’s deeply partisan body locked in a bitter battle over a special US$40 billion defence budget proposed by the ruling party.
“Very much moving a target,” said Glaser. “The inability of the parties to work together on anything ... opens up fissures that [Beijing] can exploit.”
-- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
