Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory in Sunday’s snap election has sounded alarm bells in Beijing, which is wary that closer ties between Tokyo and Taipei could complicate its long-term objective of reunifying Taiwan.
Beijing’s annual work conference on Taiwan affairs, held on Monday and Tuesday, came just after Japan’s lower-house election, in which Takaichi’s party secured a two-thirds supermajority.
At the event, Wang Huning, the Communist Party’s fourth-ranked leader, reaffirmed Beijing’s long-term strategy for cross-strait relations.
Wang, who is chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, mainland China’s top advisory body, said it was necessary to “firmly support the patriotic pro-unification forces on the island and resolutely strike against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces”.
Wang also warned against “interference by external forces” and called for safeguarding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Analysts said the language used conveyed Beijing’s growing concern that expanding external security cooperation involving Taiwan could narrow its political and strategic room to manoeuvre.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
On Tuesday, foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian accused Tokyo of being insincere in its calls for dialogue.
“Calling for dialogue while engaging in confrontation at the same time is not something anyone would accept,” Lin said, in a reference to Takaichi’s post-election remarks expressing openness to communicating with Beijing.
“If Japan truly wished to develop a strategic relationship of mutual benefit with China, it should withdraw Takaichi’s erroneous remarks related to Taiwan, abide by the four political documents between China and Japan, and honour the political commitments made by the Japanese side.”
China-Japan ties sank to their lowest point in more than a decade following Takaichi’s comments in November that an attack on Taiwan might justify military intervention. While the Japanese leader later described the remarks as hypothetical, she has refused to retract them.
Analysts said Takaichi’s electoral victory had reinforced a longer-term shift already under way in Japan: a gradual move towards a more security-driven foreign policy and a greater willingness to link Tokyo’s own security directly to stability in the Taiwan Strait.
That policy direction risked drawing Tokyo more deeply into cross-strait contingencies and complicating Beijing’s efforts to isolate Taiwan internationally, they said.
Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at Taiwan’s government-funded Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said Takaichi’s electoral mandate could “accelerate Japan’s transition from a defence-oriented posture towards one centred on deterrence”.
“This posture aligns more closely with Washington’s emphasis on collective defence,” Su added, noting that stability in the Taiwan Strait was increasingly seen as part of a broader regional security framework rather than a purely cross-strait issue.
Meanwhile, Taiwanese officials have cautiously welcomed the Japanese election results, expressing hope that the island’s ties with Tokyo could continue to deepen while contributing to regional stability.
Lawmakers from Taiwan’s ruling independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party said the electoral outcome indicated growing support in Japan for stronger national security policies and a firmer stance towards mainland China.
In contrast, Taiwan’s opposition figures urged restraint. Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the main opposition party Kuomintang, which favours engagement with Beijing, said the broader regional implications of Takaichi’s policy direction remained uncertain.
Cheng asserted that Taiwan “should prioritise preventing conflict in the Taiwan Strait rather than becoming entangled in great-power rivalry”.
Taiwan “must avoid being reduced to a pawn in strategic competition”, she added.
Some analysts said Takaichi’s victory nevertheless provided reassurance for the island.
According to Chen Yu-hua, an assistant professor in the Global Studies Programme at Akita International University in Japan, “Taiwan will certainly benefit from a Takaichi government with long-term, stable rule. The security benefits will spill over.”
Sean King, senior vice-president and Asia specialist at New York-based advisory firm Park Strategies, said Takaichi’s remarks linking Taiwan’s security to Tokyo’s marked a significant shift in political signalling.
“Takaichi is the first Japanese prime minister to say the quiet part out loud by all but confirming Tokyo would join the United States in helping to defend Taiwan from any mainland Chinese attack,” King added.
Mainland Chinese scholars offered a more guarded assessment.
Ni Lexiong, a political scientist at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said Tokyo and Taipei “will not openly form an official military alliance” despite possibly closer cooperation, adding that such a move “would be too blatant”.
Ni argued that the extent of Tokyo-Taipei military coordination would “depend on the intensity of the military pressure exerted on Taiwan by the mainland”.
Ma Xiaolin, a professor at Zhejiang International Studies University, said Beijing should continue prioritising stable relations with Washington while reassessing its strategy towards Tokyo and Taiwan.
He said Washington, Tokyo and Taiwan were increasingly coordinating action but Beijing would need to balance deterrence with stability management.
“The United States is positioned at the back, while Japan and Taiwanese separatist forces are at the forefront,” Ma said, adding that such developments were testing Beijing’s tolerance and presenting it with a strategic challenge.
--- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
