People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut speaks during an election campaign rally in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026. -- AP Photo/Wason Wanichakorn
BANGKOK (AFP): Thais vote on Sunday (Feb 8) in an election pitting the popular reformists who won last time against the conservative who ended up as prime minister, with ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra looming large from his prison cell.
The South-East Asian nation's next government will need to reckon with a long-standing border dispute with Cambodia that twice erupted into deadly fighting last year, and the multibillion-dollar transnational cyberscam networks based in the region.
Economic growth is anaemic, with the tourism sector vital but arrivals yet to return to their pre-Covid highs, and fast-growing Vietnam is now attracting more foreign direct investment.
No party is expected to win an outright majority, and analysts say the election could be a repeat of the last poll less than three years ago.
Then, the previous version of the progressive People's Party recorded the largest vote share and the most parliament seats, but its candidate was blocked from the prime ministership and the party was later dissolved.
Instead Thaksin's Pheu Thai party, which came second, formed a coalition with the third-placed conservatives Bhumjaithai, only to have its prime minister removed by court order.
He was succeeded by Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was judicially ousted herself before parliament anointed her former coalition partner, Anutin Charnvirakul, in September -- the country's third prime minister in two years.
"Thai elections have effectively become decoupled from government formation," political scientist Napon Jatusripitak said.
"That's not necessarily a good thing for a country where democratic experience has been turbulent."
Thailand's political history is replete with military coups, bloody street protests and judicial bans on prime ministers and parties.
The most recent coup in 2014 was followed by five years of junta rule and a military-drafted constitution that gives institutions appointed by the senate -- which is not directly elected -- significant power.
That has created "a situation where people who are elected have been able to be undermined by people who are not elected", Napon said.
People's Party supporter Patcharee Phadungsuksira, 26, told AFP she wanted a system that was "more fair and truly represents the voice of the people".
- 'Old style' politics -
The People's Party is the runaway leader in opinion polls, predicting support from around one-third of voters.
In second place is Anutin's Bhumjaithai. A conservative who championed the legalisation of cannabis, analysts anticipate he could retain his position by again allying with Pheu Thai, now ranked third in surveys.
Thailand's most successful political party of modern times, Pheu Thai has fallen from grace after Paetongtarn was dismissed by the constitutional court over her handling of the Cambodia dispute, and with Thaksin serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption.
His nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat is seeking to become the family's fifth prime minister, but pollster NIDA is projecting the party will capture just 16 percent of votes, a far cry from the support it garnered at its electoral peak.
While centre-right Bhumjaithai touts its national defence credentials, especially after last year's military clashes with Cambodia, the People's Party is advocating ending conscription and cutting the number of generals.
All three major parties offer various populist handouts and socioeconomic policies, including Pheu Thai's pledge to award nine daily prizes of one million baht ($31,000) each to boost the economy.
A referendum ballot on Sunday will also give voters a chance to voice whether they want constitutional reform in principle, but with no specific measures on the table.
"We cannot really expect a lot of change in this election," said political scientist Punchada Sirivunnabood, noting Thailand's "old style" politics remained in place.
Unless the People's Party wins an overall majority at the ballot box -- something only achieved by Thaksin's party in previous democratic polls -- she said it will be "really impossible" for them to form a government. -- AFP
