HANOI: The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam opened in Hanoi on Jan 19 and will run until Jan 25, to select a new leadership team that will shape the country’s direction for the next five years — and potentially the next two decades — as Vietnam moves towards the centenary of its founding, according to Krungthep Turakij.
The high-stakes congress comes at a critical juncture for one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Vietnam faces mounting pressures on multiple fronts, including global trade tensions, US import tariffs reportedly as high as 20%, a rapidly ageing population, and the most far-reaching overhaul of state and economic structures in decades.
Not just choosing leaders, but choosing a national direction
Over seven days, nearly 2,000 party delegates from across the country will elect the Central Committee, the Politburo and top state leaders, while setting economic targets and long-term development strategies.
Analysts say the congress is not merely a routine leadership transition, but a key signal of Vietnam’s future policy direction in a rapidly changing global environment.
“This is a leadership transition that takes place every five years, but this one is particularly significant because the global context has changed so dramatically, especially in terms of tariffs and the world economic system,” said Nguyen Khac Giang, a researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Driving a ‘self-reliant economy’
At the centre of the congress is To Lam (pic), the current general secretary of the Communist Party, who rose to the country’s top post in August 2024 following the death of former leader Nguyen Phu Trong. To Lam is now seeking a full five-year mandate from this congress.
He is widely regarded as a risk-taking leader. Since taking office, To Lam has launched Vietnam’s most extensive bureaucratic reform in decades—merging provinces, reducing the number of ministries, and cutting tens of thousands of public-sector positions to speed up state decision-making.
While the overall impact will take time to assess as civil servants adjust, approval timelines for some investment projects have already shortened noticeably.
At the same time, he has promoted a new economic strategy that elevates the private sector as the country’s main growth engine, while reducing reliance on foreign direct investment and export-led growth alone.
The ultimate goal of these reforms is to elevate Vietnam to developed-country status by 2045. The government is targeting economic growth of “at least 10%” during 2026–2030, after achieving around 8% growth last year.
Speaking at the congress, To Lam said Vietnam sees science, technology, innovation and digital transformation as the main drivers of future growth.
He also outlined ambitions for Vietnam to become an international financial hub, alongside accelerated development of ports, logistics centres and airports, and greater self-reliance in technology and supply chains, particularly in strategic industries.
He stressed that “security in the modern era” extends beyond borders and territorial sovereignty to include political systems, culture, ideology, the economy, finance, data, energy, water and food security.
Echoes of China’s model
Asst Prof Morragotwong Phumplab, deputy director for research and academic services at Thammasat University, previously told Krungthep Turakij that Vietnam’s economic strategy increasingly resembles China’s, particularly in its effort to balance domestic and external markets rather than over-rely on any single pillar.
Vietnam, she said, is clearly attempting to upgrade its industrial base—from contract manufacturing of basic goods such as garments and footwear to high-technology production, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence—mirroring a path China once took.
However, Vietnam still differs from China in terms of state control. The Vietnamese government maintains tighter oversight of the economy, with strict laws and conditions governing joint investments. This underscores the state’s continued grip on power, even as it welcomes foreign investors.
From cheap labour to value creation
In recent years, Vietnam has become a key node in global supply chains, as multinational firms relocated production from China to reduce exposure to the US–China trade war. The US market now accounts for nearly one-third of Vietnam’s total exports.
Yet tariff measures under the Trump administration have accelerated Hanoi’s need to rethink its traditional economic model.
“Vietnam needs to add more value to its exports, rather than relying on cheap labour and foreign capital,” said Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam specialist at the University of New South Wales Canberra and author of several books on the country. He described the shift as a “structural transformation of both the economy and society”.
A possible move towards single-leader rule
Vietnam currently operates under a “four-pillar collective leadership” system comprising the party general secretary, the president, the prime minister and the National Assembly speaker. Media reports suggest To Lam may seek to hold both the general secretary and president roles simultaneously.
Analysts note that To Lam has steadily consolidated political power in recent years. Before becoming party leader in 2024, he served as public security minister and spearheaded an extensive anti-corruption campaign that triggered unprecedented political upheaval, with hundreds of officials—including senior party figures — arrested and prosecuted.
Internal power games and persistent rumours
Despite the party’s efforts to project unity, Vietnam’s one-party system—marked by state secrecy and restricted media freedom—has fuelled persistent rumours and speculation, both domestically and internationally.
Dr Hai Hong Nguyen, a senior lecturer in politics, social change and international relations at VinUniversity, said that in recent months rumours have swirled around the political futures of several top leaders, including To Lam; President Luong Cuong; Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh; and Defence Minister Phan Van Giang.
Under new party rules, leaders who reach the age threshold are expected to step down at the time of the congress. To Lam and Luong Cuong are both 68, while Pham Minh Chinh is 67 — placing all three within retirement criteria. Phan Van Giang, at 65, remains eligible to continue.
However, leaked unofficial lists ahead of the 15th plenum painted different scenarios. One list omitted Luong Cuong and suggested To Lam, Phan Van Giang and Pham Minh Chinh would assume the top roles of party chief, president and prime minister respectively.
Another list retained To Lam and Phan Van Giang in their current positions but replaced Pham Minh Chinh with Le Minh Hung, a party organisation chief with a finance background who is 17 years younger.
There is also speculation that To Lam could simultaneously hold the party general secretary and presidency, echoing China’s model under Xi Jinping.
Should such centralisation occur, the party may face resistance from conservative factions and would likely need to amend party rules and the constitution to establish clearer checks and accountability mechanisms.
Stability as an investor ‘premium’
For foreign investors, greater clarity in power structures is not necessarily a negative.
“Vietnam is currently managed like a partnership of multiple stakeholders. Centralising power could make decision-making resemble that of a CEO, which some investors do not see as a bad thing,” said Dominic Scriven, founder of Dragon Capital.
“Uncertainty, not authority, is the real enemy of economic ambition.”
More than 40 years after the Doi Moi reforms, Vietnam has lifted itself from poverty to become one of Asean’s largest economies. Trade surpassed US$930 billion in 2025, while the poverty rate has fallen to around 1.3%.
Yet party leaders are keenly aware that legitimacy in today’s world is measured not by declarations on paper, but by tangible outcomes for citizens.
As former party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong once said, “A party congress can only be deemed successful when its resolutions are translated into prosperity and better living standards for the people.”
This is the ultimate test facing Vietnam’s next generation of leaders. - The Nation/ANN
