HANOI: Vietnam's ruling Communist Party opens its twice-a-decade congress on Monday (Jan 19), finalising its leadership roster for the next five years and outlining plans for the fast-growing South-East Asian manufacturing hub.
The only legal party in Vietnam, it has so far followed consensus-based decision-making, preventing the emergence of a single all-powerful leader.
General Secretary To Lam is challenging that model, seeking to become president as well as party chief.
Here are some key questions surrounding the highly choreographed event that runs from January 19 to 25:
How is the leadership selected?
Roughly 1,600 delegates representing the party's five million members will assemble in Hanoi for a week of closed-door meetings.
They will vote around 200 members onto the Central Committee, which in turn selects between 17 and 19 members of the powerful politburo.
The general secretary is considered the country's top leader, but the politburo also selects the other "pillars" of Vietnam's collective system of government: the president, prime minister, chairman of the National Assembly and standing member of the Central Committee's Secretariat.
The president, prime minister and chairman of the National Assembly must later be approved by a vote in the legislature.
Who are the key players?
General Secretary Lam is set to retain his post as Vietnam's top leader, according to sources briefed on party deliberations.
Lam spent much of his career in the secretive public security ministry and his party faction is seen as aligned with the police. The other main grouping is aligned with the military.
Analysts say President Luong Cuong, a former army general, could stay in his post or be replaced -- either by Lam, or by military-backed Defence Minister Phan Van Giang.
The politburo makeup will be the best measure of Lam's dominance, said Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
If there is a balance of power between the two factions, he said, then Lam would be "first among equals but that doesn't mean he has the power to do what he wants".
Where will the party lead Vietnam?
Having pruned the administrative state and cut red tape, experts say Lam will focus on spurring private sector growth and digital and technological progress.
The party has set an ambitious 10-per cent annual economic growth target for the next five years.
The party is unlikely to relax its tight control of the media or harsh treatment of dissidents, more than 160 of whom are in jail, according to Human Rights Watch.
Derek Grossman, a Vietnam expert at the University of Southern California, said Lam's leadership "heavily draws upon his tenure as security minister, suggesting that crackdowns on political dissent could become more common".
What about foreign policy?
Lam has maintained his predecessor's "bamboo diplomacy" approach, looking to stay on good terms with the world's major powers.
Ahead of the congress, senior cadres identified rivalry between Vietnam's top trading partners the United States and China as a major impediment to reaching the 2026 growth target.
They are expected to pass a resolution elevating foreign affairs to a "core" national function, alongside national defence and internal security.
"Diplomatic diversification is the key method of achieving growth goals," said Khang Vu, a Vietnam expert and visiting scholar at Boston College. - AFP
