People walk past a giant poster for the upcoming 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, in Hanoi, Vietnam, 12 January 2026. The Congress is scheduled for 19-25 January 2026. --Photo: EPA/LUONG THAI LINH via The Straits Times/ANN
HANOI – Normally bustling with activity, the alley in Hanoi’s Ngoc Ha ward is now almost empty. No food sellers, no tea shops, no makeshift stalls – just a couple of children playing in the dusty courtyard.
The local authorities have reinforced a new policy to clear the capital’s pavements and get rid of cho coc, or squat markets, deemed to be unsightly and obstructing pedestrians.
Homemaker Nguyen Thi Phuong Lien, 42, believes the clean-up was likely done because of the upcoming 14th party congress of Vietnam’s ruling party, which is scheduled to be held from Jan 19 to 25.
At the congress, the Communist Party of Vietnam will reiterate its ambitious target for Vietnam to become a developed country with high income by 2045. The new leaders of the country of over 100 million people are also to be revealed at the event, which is held once every five years.
Finding successors
Delegates will in theory elect a new Central Committee – the highest authority of the party – of 180 permanent and 20 alternate members, who will then vote to elect the all-powerful Politburo of 17 to 19 members, and the general secretary.
Yet, according to University of New South Wales Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer, “everything has been set since the conclusion of the Central Committee’s 15th plenum in December, which endorsed the recommendations of the Politburo’s sub-committee on personnel headed by To Lam”, referring to the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
Mr Lam thanked party members on Dec 23, 2025, for nominating him and some others to the Central Committee and leadership positions for the next term; his name was pretty much put at the top of the list, despite the age limit set by the party for its top leaders.
The police general, who turns 69 in July, is already past the mandatory retirement age of 65, making his selection technically an exemption.
“Did the Central Committee approve more than one special case?” asked Prof Thayer, noting that the party’s personnel matters are often kept secret.
Some other members of the current Politburo who will also have passed the age limit – such as Minister of National Defence Phan Van Giang, who turns 66 later in 2026 – may also get a chance to contend for the top job, or at least one of the four “core” positions.
These are known as “the four pillars” – the general secretary, the state president, the prime minister and the chairman of the National Assembly.
“The military is better connected to Vietnamese society (than the police) through national conscription, a pool of veterans, compulsory defence education in schools and universities, military-owned enterprises that employ military family members, and as manager of special defence zones along the border and other remote localities,” explained Prof Thayer.
This will help increase Gen Giang’s chances, he added.
Current state President Luong Cuong is a former army general, and Gen Giang was tipped by some watchers as successor to Gen Cuong, who is 69 and due for retirement.
Yet, there has been talk of combining the positions of party general secretary and state president – this move would require amending Vietnam’s Constitution or obtaining approval from the Central Committee and endorsement by the National Assembly.
If the two roles are merged, this will scupper Gen Giang’s chances of serving as state president, said Prof Thayer.
Mr Lam is expected to assume both roles if they are combined.
Dr Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the Vietnam Studies Programme of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said that, in his view, Gen Giang is “still very much in the game”.
“He has just been nominated to run for the March 2026 National Assembly election, which strongly suggests he remains in the top-tier pool,” he noted.
“Substantively, Gen Giang’s a career military officer, so his public profile is more about stability, discipline and defence priorities, whereas Mr Lam’s signature has been organisational reshaping, a pivot to the private sector and a more assertive security-driven approach to system management.”
Economic goals
The congress is to set “comprehensive development goals and directions in all fields in the new era of the Vietnamese nation”, senior party official and Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung told foreign diplomats on Jan 7.
“The new era of the nation’s rise” has become the buzzword, a motto spearheaded by Mr Lam.
Nearly 1,600 delegates, representing more than five million party members, will “review and assess 40 years of the Doi Moi (Renewal) process and five years of implementing the Resolution” of the previous congress, according to Mr Trung.
The party congress will reaffirm the goals set by the 13th Congress of “becoming a developing country with modern-oriented industry and a high-middle income level by 2030, and becoming a developed country with high income by 2045”, said Prof Thayer.
Mr Lam accepts that one of the main challenges facing Vietnam is to embrace technological advancement to avoid falling into the middle-income trap, he added.
The country’s Parliament, or National Assembly, has approved a set of goals for 2026, including economic growth of at least 10 per cent and gross domestic product per capita of around US$5,500 (S$7,000). Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 was 8.02 per cent and its per capita income was US$5,026.
Double-digit growth is planned for the 2026-2030 period, despite the global economic downturn and hefty tariffs imposed on Vietnam by the US, its leading export market.
Mr Lam and some of his comrades, including Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, have been championing the private economy as Vietnam’s driving force, but an analyst warned that the party’s modus operandi is still based on collective decision-making.
“The congress is specifically about setting goals through 2030, and the headline signals point to growth ambition, an infrastructure push and a stronger domestic ‘national champions’ agenda,” said ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Dr Giang.
“That said, even a strong leader still has to govern by consensus inside a conservative party, so the direction may stay pro-growth, but the speed and packaging could be moderated to keep the coalition together,” he added.
Still, investing in big infrastructure projects has political consensus among the top echelon, Dr Giang said, and is likely to continue under the leaders of the next tenure.
What’s next?
After the congress concludes, Vietnam will hold a parliamentary election in March to elect state and government leaders, although it is believed that those appointments will first have to be green-lighted by the party.
Dr Giang said the new head of government will face the challenging task of maintaining the double-digit growth rate.
“It may remain an aspiration in party documents, but a more technocratic successor could put greater weight on execution capacity, macro stability and risk management rather than headline targets,” he told ST.
In foreign affairs, the country will continue its “bamboo diplomacy”, allowing it to remain neutral and balanced, especially in relations with global powers such as the United States and China.
Economic development remains the focal point of the party’s agenda, as it helps strengthen its legitimacy, say observers. Political reforms do not seem to be on the cards.
“Following the death of former general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (in July 2024), the Communist Party implemented many major reform policies,” said dissident lawyer Dang Dinh Manh, who now resides in Washington.
“However, what I most eagerly awaited was political reform, to return power and self-determination to the people and serve as the driving force that would help the country grow in all aspects, including the national character,” Mr Manh said.
“Yet, I haven’t seen any sign of political reform.” -- The Straits Times/ANN
