Growing unease in Asia-Pacific as US strike on Venezuela challenges rules-based order


Captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro being escorted to a courthouse in New York on Jan 5 for an initial appearance to face US. federal charges. - Reuters

MANILA: While governments across the Asia-Pacific region have responded cautiously to the US attack on Venezuela, lawmakers and former officials have hit out at Washington’s move, saying its actions risk accelerating the erosion of the rules-based international order.

In particular, the episode has drawn pointed rebukes in countries that rely on international law to push back against stronger powers – a concern that resonates deeply in Asia’s contested security landscape.

For Asian states facing flashpoints such as in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula, the issue is less Venezuela itself than the precedent the recent US military action sets.

Analysts warn that a further slide towards “might-makes-right” behaviour could leave smaller states more exposed in a world increasingly shaped by power rather than rules.

In the Philippines, opposition lawmaker Leila de Lima stood apart from the government’s more calibrated tone, as the Department of Foreign Affairs called on all parties to respect the UN Charter and exercise restraint to prevent escalation.

De Lima argued that the US military operation in Venezuela undermined the rules-based international order and weakened the Philippines’ moral position as it confronts China’s assertiveness in the West Philippine Sea. The West Philippine Sea is the name used by Manila for parts of the South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone.

“As a US ally, this leaves the Philippines with a compromised moral ascendancy” in opposing Chinese actions, she warned.

Likewise, Japanese former defence minister Itsunori Onodera described the US move as “the very definition of changing the status quo by force” and warned it could undermine efforts to rally international opinion against China and Russia.

Japanese media editorials were also broadly critical, with the Yomiuri daily cautioning that if major powers prioritise military force over international law, the international order itself would be at risk.

In contrast, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi avoided commenting on whether the US violated international law, using carefully worded remarks that did not mention Washington or US President Donald Trump by name.

Political scientist Aries Arugay, a visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said the Venezuela episode was significant for Asia because it appeared to confirm a shift in US behaviour under Trump.

“The US has traditionally presented itself as a status quo power that upholds the rules-based international order,” he said.

“What we are seeing under Trump 2.0 is much less interest in maintaining that order.”

“That is bad news for us in Asia,” he added, noting that countries such as the Philippines, Japan and South Korea have relied on the US as a stabiliser against China’s hegemonic behaviour. “Our precarity just got intensified.”

Dr Tosh Minohara, chair of Kobe-based think-tank Research Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs, said Washington’s action indicates that the rule of law, which “used to be a big American thing”, is “malleable” under Trump.

“It proves the point that since the US is powerful, it gets to set the rules,” he said. “But what it does not realise is that this puts off a lot of countries and fuels anti-American resentment that manifests itself in a way that is not readily apparent.”

Meanwhile, Indonesia has emerged as one of the more forceful official voices in South-East Asia. It issued a carefully worded statement expressing “deep concern” over the use or threat of force, adding a warning that such actions risk setting a dangerous precedent in international relations.

Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry stressed that respect for sovereignty, diplomacy and international humanitarian law was essential, particularly the protection of civilians, signalling unease over how quickly military force was deployed in the snatch-and-grab operation that whisked away Venezuela’s sitting President Nicolas Maduro from a fortified compound in the heart of capital Caracas.

India, which has sought to preserve strategic autonomy amid competing pressures, expressed “deep concern” without directly criticising Washington.

Analysts noted that India’s stance is linked to New Delhi’s reluctance to antagonise the US amid ongoing trade tensions – especially with trade talks reaching the final stages – and its broader caution in conflicts involving its partners.

“It would be odd if India, which didn’t condemn the invasion of Ukraine, had condemned the US invasion of Venezuela,” said Dr Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation.

In Singapore, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said the Republic is “gravely concerned” by the US intervention in Venezuela.

“Singapore is deeply committed to international law and the principles of the UN Charter that safeguard the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, especially small states. Singapore has consistently opposed actions contrary to international law by any parties, including foreign military intervention in any country,” MFA said in a statement on Jan 4.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who is on a state visit to China until Jan 7, did not directly comment on the US operation but instructed his Foreign Ministry to prepare to evacuate South Koreans in Venezuela if needed.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, urged all parties to support dialogue and diplomacy to prevent escalation, saying Canberra continued to support international law and a peaceful, democratic transition in Venezuela. He also noted longstanding concerns about Venezuela’s democratic and human rights record.

Taiwan stood out for its more bullish reading of recent events. In comments reported by Bloomberg, Taiwanese officials framed the Venezuela operation as a demonstration of US military capability and deterrence, arguing that Beijing was constrained less by precedent than by capacity.

Online reaction in Taiwan, however, was divided, with some warning that the US operation could embolden China.

For US partners in the Asia-Pacific region, the Venezuela episode has become a reminder of an uncomfortable reality, which is that while US military power remains central to regional deterrence, the credibility of the rules it once championed is no longer assured.

“So, what can we do? The other option really is that the burden of upholding the rules-based international order now falls into the hands of small to middle-sized countries,” said Dr Arugay. - The Straits Times/ANN

*** Additional reporting by Hariz Baharudin, Nirmala Ganapathy, Walter Sim and Wendy Teo.

 

 

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