FILE PHOTO: Labourers work at a garment factory in Yangon on November 1, 2018. The country faces a critical shortage of skilled workers. - AFP
YANGON: Sitting in a restaurant, the business leader is resigned. The entrepreneur’s company used to hire 600 workers before the 2021 coup. Now, it is down to fewer than half of that.
“We are facing a critical shortage of skilled workers. The lack of economic prospects and the impact of conscription have forced many young professionals to leave the country.”
Without mincing words, the Myanmar national said the “poly crisis of inflation, brain drain and upcountry conflict is reaching a breaking point”.
And that is why the business owner harbours a germ of hope that the ongoing general election in Myanmar, restricted though it is, could be a harbinger of better things to come.
“While an election may not be a perfect solution, it is a practical step towards a stable government that can engage with the world and enact firm policies to protect the value of our currency.”
Many citizens in Myanmar have rejected outright the election being held by the country’s military administration – the first since the coup – calling it a sham.
But beset by intractable operating challenges that arise from a country in political limbo, five industrialists here who spoke to The Straits Times offer a different view.
They said that they see the polls as an opportunity to reset the country’s troubled economy. All spoke on condition of anonymity, out of fear of reprisal from the military administration.
A business owner of 30 years said an election “could serve as a step towards restoring operational stability”.
“For the business community, this is about human and economic survival, not political endorsement,” the entrepreneur insisted.
“We have a responsibility to our employees and their families. To ignore any possible path towards a permanent administrative structure is to accept continued poverty and brain drain.”
Analysts, however, expressed doubts about whether Myanmar’s economy will improve after the election.
Dr Wai Yan Phyo Naing, a research consultant at the Institute for Strategy and Policy Myanmar, said investors will remain cautious about investing in the country if the new government formed after the election comprises the same individuals linked to the military regime.
“Any economic recovery that does occur under those circumstances is likely to be narrow, limited and relatively fragile,” he added.
Myanmar held the first of its three-phase elections on Dec 28, with the remaining phases to be conducted on Jan 11 and Jan 25. Only 265 of 330 townships across the country are taking part.
Significant parts of Myanmar have come under ethnic armed groups like the Kachin Independence Army, which controls large parts of the north, and the Arakan Army in the western Rakhine state. Civilian resistance forces have also wrested territories from the military.
The election, decried by critics as unfair, is expected to usher in a win by the military-linked Union Solidarity and Development Party, which is fielding the most candidates. The National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide victory at the 2020 polls, has been dissolved as it did not re-register as a political party with the military election commission.
Since the coup, the country of about 50 million people has suffered multiple setbacks, including widespread armed conflicts and a struggling economy.
A local business owner dealing in essential goods said “operating has become a test of extreme resilience”, adding that the depreciation of the country’s currency has driven persistently high inflation. The currency has plunged from 1,330 kyat per US dollar in 2021 to 4,520 kyat per US dollar in 2025, noted a United Nations report in January.
“Coping is made harder by extremely tight import controls and onerous licensing requirements. The central bank’s foreign exchange restrictions, including mandatory conversion of export earnings, have made our exports uncompetitive,” the business owner added.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Myanmar’s inflation rate has shot up from 2.2 per cent in 2021 to a projected 31 per cent for 2025.
The World Bank estimates that Myanmar’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by two per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026, though it sees some encouraging signs of recovery driven by post-quake reconstruction and continued targeted assistance for those who are most affected.
In March 2025, the country was hit by a 7.7-magnitude earthquake that affected more than 17 million people, with nine million severely impacted, said the World Bank in June.
Since the 2021 coup, a number of foreign investors have pulled out of the country. They include Norway’s telecommunications company Telenor, US multinational energy firm Chevron, and Singapore investment holding company Emerging Towns & Cities Singapore.
Myanmar also faces a lack of skilled workers. Many of its young citizens have fled the country, given the ongoing clashes between the civilian resistance forces and the military, and a national conscription law introduced in 2024 for men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27.
Political instability has also led to disruptions in education, with an October report by the United Nations Development Programme highlighting that one in four young people in Myanmar – or almost four million of them – is unemployed.
Another long-time business owner also hoped for more stability after the election: “Effective governance and the rule of law will help create a stable environment that encourages investment, enhances industrial growth, and contributes to long-term national development.”
But Dr Sean Turnell, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, told ST: “I’m sure that the business people themselves know that to expect any improved economic policies under the junta is extremely unrealistic.”
Dr Turnell, who was special economic adviser to NLD party leader Aung San Suu Kyi, said the military regime had “effectively halved Myanmar’s projected GDP” during its rule over the last five years, despite having the opportunity to implement good economic policies.
Dr Yan added that whether the economy will improve depends on factors such as investment conditions, or whether there are clear, measurable improvements in the rule of law and regulatory frameworks.
The entrepreneurs who spoke to ST are hopeful nevertheless.
Said one: “We are advocating a functional environment where the economy can finally begin to restart.” - The Straits Times/ANN
