The US State Department’s approval this week of a US$11.1 billion weapons package for Taiwan – reportedly the largest in the island’s history – dovetails with Taipei’s effort to show US President Donald Trump it is doing more to defend itself, even as it shifts towards a less conventional “porcupine” strategy, analysts said.
“These are asymmetric weapons that are focused on bolstering the capability of Taiwan’s military to prevent a PLA invasion,” said Bonnie Glaser, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.
“One of Trump’s priorities is to avoid getting the US embroiled in a war. He wants Taiwan to spend more on its defence and acquire capabilities to defend itself. This package is consistent with that logic.”
Late Wednesday, the US State Department announced the approval, which includes US$4 billion for 82 High Mobility Rocket Systems, or Himars, and US$4 billion for 60 Self-Propelled Howitzers along with a combined US$3 billion for “tactical mission” software, anti-tank Javelin missiles, helicopter spare parts and kits to refurbish Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office strongly condemned the deal, calling it a grave violation of Chinese sovereignty, a dangerous signal to separatists and, said spokesman Chen Binhua, a “flagrant interference in China’s internal affairs”.
Analysts said they did not expect Beijing to stage a massive show of military force around the self-governed island, in part given a desire to avoid reigniting US-China tensions that eased after Trump sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October.
“The Chinese went off on it last night. Yes, it was fiery but it was also standard issue,” said Michael Mazza, senior research director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. “I don’t think this is an action which leads China to do something fundamentally new and different and threatening – big arms sales are old hat.”
The arms deal must be approved by the US Congress, but that is largely seen as a formality. Unlike past weapons packages, however, this one was wrapped up by Washington before Taiwan’s deeply divided legislature allocated the money as island lawmakers argue furiously over the bill.
If the budget remains deadlocked, it could seriously damage US-Taiwan relations, said Mazza and Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, citing the chill in ties between 2004 and 2006 when then- and current opposition Kuomintang party balked at spending large sums on weapons.
“That would create tension with President Trump, who wants allies and partners to spend more on their defence, along with Republicans in Congress – and Democrats as well,” he said. “And we should expect more Taiwan arms sales in the coming months.”
The KMT generally leans more towards China while the ruling Democratic Progressive Party favours de facto independence.
Hammond-Chambers estimated that this week’s US$11.1 billion tranche is a mere 40 per cent of the arms purchases in the pipeline over the next nine months. “There will probably be US$13 [billion] to US$15 billion more,” he added.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed by law to supplying it with weapons.
Washington has pressured Taiwan in recent years to embrace an asymmetric strategy using inexpensive, highly mobile drones, missiles and other weapons as Chinese military muscle has far outstripped Taiwan’s. This is sometimes short-handed as a “porcupine strategy”, referring to an animal that is difficult to eat.
That approach has faced resistance from Taiwan’s military establishment, however, which traditionally favoured expensive tanks and other prestigious hardware that strategists argue lacked effectiveness in countering any Chinese attack.
But US lawmakers have also opposed less expensive contracts that could mean fewer jobs, less revenue and lower campaign contributions for their districts.
Trump has made little secret of his desire to see US allies and partners reduce their trade surplus with the US and pay significantly more for their own defence in keeping with his “America first” agenda, which has put Taiwan on his radar.
“You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business,” Trump said last year. “And they want protection.”
Taipei has viewed bigger and more expensive arms purchases as a way to address the transactional president’s concerns.
“This sale is an outstanding move by the Trump administration to strengthen the partnership between the United States and Taiwan and deter a [Chinese] invasion of the island,” John Moolenaar, the Republican congressman from Michigan who is chairman of the House Select Committee on China, said Thursday. “Taiwan is investing in its own defence, and I hope these urgently needed items are swiftly delivered in order to strengthen deterrence.”
Ukraine has used Himars and shoulder-fired Javelin missiles very effectively against larger Russian forces following Moscow’s 2022 invasion as the approach increasingly redefines warfare.
Mazza said Taiwan’s military institutional resistance to the shift is diminishing even as Taipei continues to take delivery of US F-16 fighter aircraft and Abrams battle tanks.
“They haven’t given up on some of the more traditional capabilities entirely,” said Mazza, a former language student at Tsinghua University. “But yes, this arm sale package is really focused on these smaller, more affordable, very mobile, very survivable weapons”, which will take time to integrate into the more conventional military.
Glaser, meanwhile, said Washington’s approach to Taiwan has been a bit uneven this year.
Even as it blocked Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te’s transit through New York en route to Latin America and threatened to impose a 100 per cent tax on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company if it did not increase its US investment, Washington has approved three arms sales since the Trump-Xi summit. “The Trump administration’s policies related to Taiwan have been inconsistent,” she said.
Hammond-Chambers countered, however, that Taiwan emerged favourably in Trump’s recently released national security strategy and has reaffirmed the long-standing US policy of strategic ambiguity – the idea that Washington will not commit either way to defending Taiwan – in the wake of former president Joe Biden’s unambiguous support.
“It is likely in most imaginable circumstances of any sort of armed conflict instigated by China against Taiwan, the US would defend trade in and out [of] Taiwan, along with its allies, and would resupply Taiwan with missiles and other munitions as stocks run short,” said James Nolt, adjunct professor at New York University.
“That would probably be enough to defeat any major Chinese attack with very heavy losses because of the inherent vulnerability and logistical difficulty.” -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
