Rising tensions in the Middle East despite the fragile ceasefire agreement in Gaza are continuing to fuel demands for arms in a region where China has emerged as a major supplier.
As well as supplying drones and missiles, China is looking to expand its offering into advanced weapons systems, such as fighter jets, but is facing increasing competition from a near neighbour: South Korea.
While both have opportunities to expand arms exports, analysts said South Korea was relatively better positioned because prospective customers had to take into account political concerns about buying from China as well as the need to integrate them with existing weapons systems.
Last month’s Dubai Airshow, the largest event of its kind in the Middle East, featured models of Chinese warplanes – including the J-10CE and fifth-generation J-35 – and Wing Loong-X drones.
The 4.5-generation J-10CE fighter attracted particular attention in the wake of the India-Pakistan conflict earlier this year, when the plane was credited by Pakistan with shooting down at least one French-made Rafale fighter.
It was the first time a Chinese jet had been known to have shot down a Western-built warplane in aerial combat.
Pakistan accounts for around 60 per cent of Chinese arms exports and is the only country known to use the fighter, with around 20 of the jets in service presently.
The J-10’s performance in the India-Pakistan conflict highlighted its export potential, particularly for countries that cannot afford more expensive Western systems or are unable to buy them because of political and security concerns.
One potential buyer is Egypt, which hosted a joint drill featuring a twin-seat J-10 at one of its airbases earlier this year and has expressed an interest in expanding defence industry ties with China.
At the Egypt Defence Expo earlier this month, Egyptian defence-industrial conglomerate Arab Organisation for Industrialisation signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese arms giant Norinco to localise the manufacture of defence systems.
Both the Egyptian event and the Dubai Airshow featured exhibits from a number of direct competitors to China, including South Korean artillery and aircraft manufacturers.
These included Korea Aerospace Industries, which had miniature models of its KF-21 4.5-generation fighter jet and FA-50 light combat aircraft on display in Dubai.
The KF-21, South Korea’s first domestically produced fighter with stealth features, is scheduled to be delivered to the country’s air force next year.
There are plans to upgrade it to a fifth-generation fighter in the next decade, equipped with full stealth capabilities and the ability to operate alongside support drones.
The United Arab Emirates has expressed its interest in buying the plane. Senior air force figures visited the Korean firm’s manufacturing facilities earlier this year and one commander even took part in a test flight of a prototype during the visit.
This year’s Dubai Airshow also coincided with a visit to the country by South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, whose tour of the Middle East also included Egypt and Turkey.
His visit to the UAE saw both sides agreeing to cooperate on the joint development of weapons, local production and exports to third countries – an agreement that could be worth US$15 billion to South Korean defence contractors.
The visit was followed by the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the South Korean contractor Hanwha Aerospace and the Emirati defence conglomerate EDGE Group, to explore cooperation on advanced air and missile defence systems, long-range precision weapons, unmanned systems and the use of artificial intelligence.
Lee also pledged to deepen defence industry ties with Egypt and Turkey, which both operate South Korean weapons systems.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the US-based Rand Corporation, said South Korea was “well-positioned to compete [on arms sales] since it is in the circle of US allies, yet its equipment is both high quality and more affordable than US or European options”.
Bence Nemeth, a senior lecturer in defence studies and executive director of the King’s Centre for Defence Economics and Management at King’s College London, said both China and South Korea had “opportunities” to expand their arms sales in the Middle East, but Seoul’s prospects were “considerably stronger”.
“Many Gulf states are actively seeking to diversify their defence procurement and reduce over-dependence on the United States. The policy swings of successive US administrations have made regional governments more cautious about relying too heavily on American systems,” Nemeth said.
“South Korea benefits from being a close US ally while simultaneously offering highly competitive, state-of-the-art weapon systems across land, naval and air domains.”
Nemeth said South Korean platforms generally provided performances “comparable to other Western systems at a lower price point”, while its defence companies were “more flexible” on technology transfer than their US or European counterparts.
These factors made South Korean systems especially attractive to Middle Eastern buyers, as Seoul positioned itself as a dependable long-term defence partner in the region, he said.
According to a report published in March by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait were among the world’s 10 largest arms importers between 2020 and 2024.
The US and Europe have been the primary sources of arms for the Middle Eastern countries for decades.
The institute’s data showed that the US was the largest provider, accounting for more than half of the region’s arms imports, followed by Italy, France, Germany, Britain, Russia and Spain.
However, the US and Europe have recently been struggling to keep up with demand driven by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, while political and security concerns have constrained their sales of advanced weapons systems to Middle Eastern countries.
This has driven Middle Eastern countries to seek alternative sources, with South Korea and China emerging as key players.
Heath said some of the main obstacles for would-be exporters were political, including the “diplomatic consequences” of arms deals.
“[South Korea], as an ally of the USA, will find it difficult to sell weapons to countries that are friendly to China and Russia, like Iran,” he said.
“Conversely, China will have a harder time selling weapons and equipment to US allies like Saudi Arabia. It is not impossible to overcome the diplomatic obstacles, but it is something that arms sellers must manage.”
A report by the Export-Import Bank of Korea published this month said South Korea’s arms exports to the Middle East had more than tripled in the space of five years, rising from roughly US$241 million in 2019 to around US$747 million in 2024.
One of China’s main areas of strength is military drones, supplying the Wing Loong series and CH-4 to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It has also supplied the latter to Algeria and Iraq.
While South Korea does not have any overseas military drone sales, it has delivered 24 FA-50 light combat aircraft to Iraq.
Both countries have also sold a variety of other weapons systems in the region – sometimes in direct competition with each other.
For example, Egypt’s army is equipped with South Korea’s self-propelled K9 howitzer, widely reported to account for around half of all global sales, while customers for China’s rival PLZ-45 include Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
South Korea has also provided Turkey with technology to develop its own artillery systems.
The two countries have also supplied surface-to-air missiles to a number of countries in the region, with Chinese HQ-9s being sold to Egypt and Morocco, while both Iraq and the UAE have bought South Korean Cheongung-IIs. Other countries, including Saudi Arabia, are equipped with systems from both countries.
Heath said the competition between the two East Asian countries may be more direct in countries that lacked strong ties to either the US or China, in which case quality and pricing were likely to be the main factors.
“ROK [the Republic of Korea, the South’s official name] seems well-positioned to compete in a few key sectors, such as aircraft, owing to its proven quality and reliability. Chinese weapons and equipment have taken a hit to their reputation in some sectors, but China offers so many types of weapons and equipment that there is always some sector where Chinese defence items will be attractive or the only choice,” Heath said.
“Drones are a good example – ROK doesn’t make many drones, while China sells many types. Thus, China is likely to outcompete the ROK in the sale of military drones. But in other areas where both offer similar goods, the ROK may gain an edge owing to its superior quality and reliability.”
But integrating Chinese weapon systems with largely Western-supplied defence architecture could be a major obstacle, along with political concerns.
“It would risk triggering US security objections and potentially jeopardising future American support,” Nemeth said.
“Furthermore, Chinese systems are built on different standards, doctrines and digital architectures, making interoperability with Western platforms far more difficult than integrating South Korean equipment, which is designed with US compatibility in mind.”
Nemeth added that South Korea would benefit if it remained open to joint production and technology sharing.
“China will continue to find buyers for specific categories, but its success will likely remain concentrated in stand-alone systems such as drones and certain missile and air-defence platforms, rather than in deeply integrated, high-end systems.
“As regional tensions persist and defence budgets grow, both countries will compete for market space, but South Korea is likely to secure the larger and more strategically important share of future sales.”
