Both agencies said they will work towards improving the forecasting of bad weather to support real-time decision-making and optimise airport operations. - ST
SINGAPORE: A new national programme will study the effects of bad weather on flight operations here after Changi Airport saw a six-fold increase in the number of flights diverted due to negative weather conditions so far in 2025.
The Aviation Meteorological Programme was jointly launched by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and the National Environment Agency (NEA).
The programme will build research and development as well as operational capabilities to mitigate and manage the effects of weather on air traffic control, airline and airport operations.
It will focus on five critical weather phenomena that affect flight operations in Singapore and the region.
Clouds, rain and wind generated by the rise of warm air and sinking of cool air in the atmosphere – known as convective weather – was responsible for a sharp increase in flight diversions at Changi Airport, from nine between January and November 2024 to 55 during the same period in 2025.
CAAS and NEA said on Dec 9 that convective weather in the region translates to greater unpredictability of thunderstorms that cause sudden changes in wind speed and direction. These thunderstorms can occur and dissipate abruptly.
Both agencies said they will work towards improving the forecasting of bad weather to support real-time decision-making and optimise airport operations.
One of the areas of focus will be lightning.
The Changi climate station observes lightning on nearly half the days of the year given that Singapore is among the world’s most lightning-prone countries due to its proximity to the Equator, said CAAS and NEA.
At present, lightning risk notifications are issued covering a 6km safety radius around the airport, which will pose operational challenges especially with the completion of Terminal 5 in the mid-2030s that will almost double the airport’s size.
Both agencies will aim to minimise the impact of cloud-to-ground lightning by improving the precision of lightning forecasts using tools such as a more precise density map of lightning strikes at the airport based on historical data.
They will also use electromagnetic modelling to see how lightning interacts with aircraft, airport infrastructure and human beings, in addition to algorithms that improve the real-time forecast of lightning events and geographical lightning risk assessment.
These initiatives will improve worker safety, reduce downtime and enable a more targeted approach to managing lightning risks, said CAAS and NEA.
Turbulence is also on the radar as severe turbulence incidents have risen globally.
In May 2024, extreme turbulence on a Singapore-bound Singapore Airlines flight left one passenger dead and dozens injured.
And in September 2025, Singapore became the first state in the world to classify severe turbulence as a major in-flight risk.
CAAS and NEA said they will work towards strengthening in-flight turbulence prediction and provide airlines with more timely and reliable weather information for them to take action.
The programme will also study surface winds, as air traffic controllers need to set out the runway direction so that pilots can fly into the wind during take-off and landing.
Rapidly shifting winds can result in multiple runway changes, said CAAS and NEA, which reduce runway capacity and pose challenges to air traffic controllers and pilots.
Both agencies will improve the accuracy and timeliness of surface wind forecasts to enable better planning for runway changes and optimisation of the use of runways.
Lastly, the programme will look into condensation trails, due to growing global attention on their effects on global warming.
Condensation trails – also known as contrails – are the white, cloud-like lines produced by aircraft engine exhaust.
Both agencies said they will increase scientific knowledge on these trails, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, where the atmospheric conditions differ from those in Europe and North America, and where data is limited.
Also on Dec 8, CAAS and NEA signed a letter of intent at a Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation Asia-Pacific Conference in Hong Kong.
The agencies will collaborate with six other air navigation service providers and meteorological service providers, among other partners, to address weather effects on aviation together.
CAAS and NEA signed a letter of intent at a Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation Asia-Pacific Conference in Hong Kong, on Dec 8.
Han Kok Juan, director-general of CAAS, said that changes in weather patterns are affecting aviation operations around the world.
He added that Singapore is taking concrete steps to address this through better use of artificial intelligence as well as integration of national aviation and meteorological knowledge. - The Straits Times/ANN
