Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s suggestion that Japan could deploy its military in response to a Taiwan contingency has escalated diplomatic tensions and risks further damaging bilateral ties, analysts have warned.
According to Beijing, Takaichi “seriously damaged bilateral ties” when she told the Japanese parliament on Friday that use of military force in the Taiwan Strait could be seen as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, a situation that could allow Tokyo to engage in military action alongside Washington.
Takaichi clarified on Monday that her remarks were only “hypothetical” and that she would refrain from making similar comments again.
However, Wang Guangtao, deputy director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, warned that the Taiwan issue was a flashpoint and relations between Tokyo and Beijing faced uncertainties.
“Since Takaichi took office, she has repeatedly used the Taiwan issue to ... increase visibility ... This has planted what we call a ‘time bomb’ for future bilateral ties, because Taiwan is a highly sensitive issue that could trigger major disruptions in China-Japan relations,” Wang said.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including Japan and the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Officially, Tokyo adheres to the one-China principle, but unofficial ties between Tokyo and the island are strong.
Beijing has frequently warned countries against official contact with Taiwan, stressing that the issue is “the core of China’s core interests”.
Wang said Takaichi had not crossed any red lines but her words and actions had already been provocative. “Therefore, the outlook for future China-Japan relations is not very optimistic. China’s policy towards Japan has shown continuity, and it still maintains a positive willingness to improve bilateral relations,” he said.
Wang said Takaichi’s comments were “partly intentional and partly unintentional”, noting that the Japanese leader “is still accustomed to making slogan-like, sensational statements, a habit from before she became prime minister”.
Previously, Japanese leaders have steered clear of explicitly referring to Taiwan in public discussions of a military response.
Last year, former prime minister Fumio Kishida avoided a direct answer when asked about a Taiwan contingency, saying only that it required a comprehensive assessment, and “it is difficult to generalise”.
Japan is host to major US military bases, including on the island of Okinawa, which could be crucial for any US support during a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Zheng Zhihua, an associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said Takaichi’s “not very prudent” remarks exposed her inexperience in diplomacy and security matters, or she may have had a motive in making them.
“This may also be a deliberate ‘testing the waters’ strategy, perhaps aimed at gauging domestic support for her policy positions, as well as sending signals to the US or China in order to strengthen her governing foundation,” Zheng said.
However, Tokyo was unlikely to make policy changes, as the Japanese government had sought to pull back to align with Tokyo’s usual practice of avoiding overly precise public statements on sensitive issues, Zheng noted.
He added that bilateral ties would still face uncertainties such as China’s reactions, Japan’s domestic public opinion, and the level of US involvement on such issues related to Taiwan.
On Wednesday, Beijing lodged another protest after the Japanese government presented an award to Hsieh Chang-ting, former head of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Japan, the island’s de facto embassy in the country.
“The Japanese government’s insistence on proposing and awarding honors to someone who promotes ‘Taiwan independence’ is yet another wrongful act by Japan on Taiwan-related issues, and China firmly opposes it,” foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday.
Guo urged Tokyo to “exercise caution on Taiwan-related matters, and stop sending any wrong signals to the Taiwan independence separatist forces”.
Earlier this month, Beijing also protested to Tokyo over Takaichi’s contact with a former senior Taiwanese politician on the sidelines of the Apec summit in South Korea. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
