As China drafts its 15th five-year plan – the next entry in a line of expansive blueprints that have set the tone for the country’s development over more than seven decades – we examine how these documents inform and reflect high-level policy priorities, what to expect in the coming iteration and why food security is set to remain a cornerstone in Beijing’s push for self-reliance.
For decades, one of the most common mantras from China’s leadership has been to “firmly hold the rice bowls of the Chinese people in our own hands” – a principle that continues to shape the Communist Party’s five-year plans.
In the current blueprint, the 14th five-year plan (2021-2025), policymakers have prioritised food security, alongside energy and finance, as one of three areas to enhance national economic security.
As officials draft the next five-year plan, analysts said food security will remain a cornerstone in the pursuit of economic resilience.
Despite China’s declining population over the past two years, the need for secure food supplies has only been reinforced by an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape and trade environment, coupled with the mounting impacts of climate change, they noted.
China has stabilised and elevated grain production to record levels over the past five years through heavy investments in agricultural technology and fierce protection of farmland, according to official figures.
The next five-year plan will likely highlight the need to diversify food sources, leveraging new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) to advance agriculture and stabilise farmers’ incomes, analysts said.
“Food is a foundational product that drives up overall prices, so Chinese politicians are extremely sensitive to it,” said Zheng Fengtian, a professor specialising in agriculture and rural affairs at Beijing’s Renmin University.
“Right now, global food supplies are largely controlled by the United States and its allies, who are aggressively targeting China. Meanwhile, Russia, another major food producer, is unreliable and often bans grain exports on a whim,” he warned.
“For a huge country like China, a significant food shortage would be extremely dangerous for any leader.”
In recent years, China has leaned towards South America, including Brazil and Argentina, but the food trade with these countries fluctuates when their governments change, he added.
Soybeans – the agricultural product that China is most reliant on from overseas markets – have become a flashpoint as the US-China trade war drags on.
China’s animal feed industry remains heavily dependent on imported soybeans but has yet to make any bulk orders from this season’s US crop. Washington, meanwhile, faces mounting pressure from American farmers to quickly strike a trade deal that would resume normal sales.
The world’s biggest food consumer imported 86.18 million tonnes of soybeans between January and September, mainly from Brazil – up 5.3 per cent from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data released on Monday.
Large-scale purchases of the US grain are seen as vital to any potential US-China trade deal, following a prior agreement in the 2018-19 trade war during US President Donald Trump’s first term.
Beyond soybeans, China mostly produces its own major grains, as self-sufficiency has long been one of Beijing’s top priorities. Under the 14th five-year plan, Beijing has made strides in guaranteeing stable grain supplies, protecting arable land, advancing agricultural technology and managing import dependencies.
New measures over the next five years, focused on diversifying sources under President Xi Jinping’s “all-encompassing approach to food,” will continue this legacy by emphasising a robust industrial chain through new varieties, alternative biological resources and technological innovation, Zheng said.
The State Council introduced a comprehensive plan last year to enhance food security by diversifying production beyond traditional agriculture. The directive called for an integrated supply system covering agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and microorganisms, targeting increased self-reliance by 2027.
Policymakers are expected to facilitate technological breakthroughs to enhance resilience and sustainability.
This year’s “No 1 central document” from the Communist Party – a paramount directive traditionally dedicated to agriculture – introduced the concept of “new agricultural productivity”, emphasising technology-driven innovation tailored to local conditions.
This “marks a new phase of [the] systematic transformation and upgrading of Chinese agricultural modernisation”, according to a KPMG report issued last month, with advances expected in emerging technologies like gene editing, synthetic biology and artificial intelligence.
This will result in new crop varieties and machinery, along with more efficient planting and breeding techniques, according to the report’s authors, who cited a February plan issued by the agriculture ministry that covered science, technology and innovation in the sector from 2024 to 2028.
Chinese agricultural scientists have already developed several promising varieties of higher-protein corn to replace soybeans in animal feed as part of Beijing’s efforts to reduce its reliance on imports, according to the president of the Huazhong Agricultural University.
Given China’s vast corn production, an improvement of just one percentage point in the protein content could reduce China’s demand for foreign soybeans by up to 8 million tonnes, Yan Jianbing told reporters in March during the “two sessions” – the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies.
In the coming five-year plan, authorities could include measures aimed at boosting morale among grain farmers through income and planting insurance, said Zhang Zhixian, head of research at Cngrain.com, a Henan-based research firm.
While some insurance programmes have been introduced, “our surveys show they are largely superficial, with low implementation”, he said.
“For example, during this year’s severe wheat drought in central China, losses due to natural disasters should have been compensated. But in practice, loss assessments are often inadequate.”
According to official data, annual grain production has remained above 650 million tonnes, underscoring the effectiveness of China’s strategy of “storing grain in the land and in technology.” Last year, total output exceeded 700 million tonnes for the first time.
China has increased its arable land in recent years through a national campaign of reclamation and upgrades. Part of this has involved converting sloped terrain and developing flatter, higher-quality fields.
Nationwide, arable land reached 129 million hectares (320 million acres) by the end of last year – a 1.46 per cent increase from 2020, the Ministry of Natural Resources said last month.
One target of the current plan has been to achieve a comprehensive mechanisation rate of 75 per cent for crop cultivation and harvesting by 2025. This goal was met ahead of schedule last year, officials announced at a meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in April.
Technological advances accounted for 63.2 per cent of agricultural output growth in 2024, just shy of the 64 per cent target by the end of 2025, according to the KPMG report.
Despite these achievements, China faces a host of challenges, including wars that severely impact food production and trade, as well as urbanisation and development which, though slower than before, still put pressure on maintaining the “red line” for farmland preservation, according to Zhu Qizhen of China Agricultural University.
Beijing’s “red line” policy mandates preserving at least 120 million hectares (296.5 million acres) of arable land to guarantee food security.
“Although the total population is declining, the pace is slow. Additionally, we must address climate change, as agriculture faces increasingly frequent extreme weather events and growing natural risks,” Zhu said.
This was clear in April and May, when central China – particularly Henan province and Shaanxi province – reported their worst droughts in 60 years, reducing wheat yields by up to 90 per cent in some areas.
Fears of food insecurity will continue to persist in China, especially “when friends are few and geopolitical rivals are many. Psychologically, even with the same level of supply, there’s still a feeling of insecurity,” said Zhang, the Henan researcher. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
