With trade tensions between China and the United States reignited less than two weeks before a major political gathering in Beijing, Chinese scholars said the flare-up could provide a common cause for the country to rally behind as policymakers take steps to protect technological development and national security.
“Pressure, whether from internal or external sources, has the potential to foster unity,” said Yang Jianwen, a senior economic researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. “This is our national character: external pressure can be transformed into motivation.”
Tensions between the world’s two largest economies ratcheted up last week amid a barrage of economic sanctions, export controls and threats of triple-digit tariffs. Numerous punitive actions have been employed, despite months of negotiations and multiple extensions of a temporary truce after the conflict reached its peak in April.
The newest battleground is the shipping sector, with both sides imposing port fees on each other’s vessels starting Tuesday. On the same day, Beijing announced it would sanction five US-based subsidiaries of South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean over what it views as collaboration with American efforts to constrain China’s maritime and shipbuilding industries.
From Beijing’s perspective, the latest escalation began with the US, and China’s actions are calibrated, reciprocal responses, according to Wang Dan, China director for Eurasia Group.
“This sets a tone for the fourth plenum that China will emphasise a long-term, steady strategy, staying the course without yielding to US pressure or altering its economic plans,” Wang said.
The plenum, a meeting of the ruling Communist Party’s powerful Central Committee, is scheduled to run from October 20 to 23.
At the gathering, President Xi Jinping and the more than 300 members of the committee are expected to discuss the outline for the next five-year plan, a document that will summarise the country’s broad goals for economic and social development over the rest of the decade – targets made more trying amid heightened tensions with the US.
Yang said that the next two years would be a critical period for the implementation of the new plan, as China will strive to make significant progress in technologically complex fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI), areas where the US maintains an advantage and has imposed trade restrictions to protect its lead.
“In the coming years, China will prepare for the worst, so that even if bad situations really occur, they will not have a fundamental impact.”
Song Guoyou, deputy head of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that while technological self-reliance and national security have been bedrock policy planks for a decade, the twists and turns of the trade war are seen as short-term issues rather than major external incidents forcing local governments to change their planning frameworks.
“There have also been strong voices arguing that truly achieving technological self-reliance and national security requires international cooperation. So our understanding of the issue is becoming more comprehensive and nuanced.”
Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said enhancing stability, strengthening economic resilience and deepening relations with major trading partners are all priorities for Beijing.
“Technological innovation has always been an important direction for China, and I believe this will not waver during the 15th five-year plan period,” Zhou said.
As the rapid development of AI technology brings more opportunities while also presenting challenges, China will look to enhance its capabilities while reducing risks, he said.
“Of course, when it comes to technological cooperation, we have always hoped for more international collaboration. If cooperation with certain partners becomes unfeasible, we will choose to strengthen cooperation with other partners.” - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
