HANOI (Bloomberg): Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated at the fastest pace in three years in the third quarter, with manufacturing and business activity cushioning the economy against higher tariffs that took effect early August.
Gross domestic product rose 8.23% in the July-September period from a year earlier, according to data from the National Statistics Office in Hanoi on Monday. That’s faster than the 7.15% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Second-quarter growth was revised up to 8.19% from an earlier estimate of 7.96%.
Industrial output remained the key driver of the country’s expansion, with manufacturing rising 9.92% in the first nine months of 2025 from a year earlier, according to the statistics office.
The manufacturing sector continued to grow as companies rushed production ahead of the US tariffs deadline, Nguyen Thi Huong, head of the National Statistics Office, said during a briefing. But the government’s target of 8.3%-8.5% growth this year will be "extremely challenging” in the current global climate, Huong said.
Vietnam remains a major global supplier even as the 20% US tariff takes hold. Apple CEO Tim Cook in May said Vietnam will produce "almost all” of its iPads, MacBooks, watches and AirPods for the American market. Samsung Electronics Co. has a major manufacturing base in the country, where it produces smartphones and other electronics.
Despite the imposition of the levy, Vietnam’s shipments to the US continued to power ahead in September, rising 38.5% from a year earlier to $13.7 billion, according to Vietnam customs data. Imports from China, its largest trading partner, rose 33.9% in September from a year earlier to $16.5 billion.
"The growth rate this quarter is quite positive and reflecting Vietnam’s stronger-than-expected export resilience, with industrial output also exceeding forecasts,” according to Pham Vu Thang Long, chief economist at Ho Chi Minh City Securities. "But we still need to keep a close watch on construction and services, where growth has slowed compared with the second quarter.”
The benchmark VN Index rose as much as 2.6% Monday morning after the GDP news, the most since August 26.
Ahead of the data, the Asian Development Bank revised its forecast for Vietnam’s growth to 6.7% from 6.6% for 2025, a pace that will make it among Asia’s fastest growing economies. The ADB said that while the impact of tariffs will likely slow growth in the second half of this year, the domestic economy should remain resilient, with plenty of fiscal space for stimulus if needed.
The government’s efforts to soften the blow of US tariffs include financial incentives for sectors from electronics to textiles - and particularly small businesses - to increase localization of supply chains, according to a September decree. It will provide as much as 70% funding for quality and production improvements, and up to 50% of outlays for research, consulting, new machinery, training and other services.
The central bank on Friday reiterated it will continue to try and spur both lending and growth, supporting key sectors while avoiding credit risks and containing inflation. Bank loans as of Sept. 29 were 13.37% higher than at the end of 2024. The regulator said it expects credit growth quickening 19%-20% by the end of the year.
"With inflation staying below 3.5%, the central bank can continue its loose monetary policy to spur growth through year-end,” Ho Chi Minh City Securities’ Long said.
--With assistance from Nguyen Kieu Giang, Linh Vu Nguyen, Cao Ban and Adrian Kennedy.
-- ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
