After his high-stakes summit with US President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, in August, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that cooperation with the United States in the Arctic was “very possible”.
“We see that Arctic cooperation is also very possible in our international context. For example, between the far east of Russia and the west coast of the US.”
Putin did not give details, nor did Trump, who spoke after Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson. But one day earlier, when asked about a report by The Daily Telegraph that the US was preparing to offer Putin economic incentives, including opening up access to natural resources off Alaska’s coast, the US president did not rule out possibilities.
It is unclear how far any potential cooperation in the Arctic could go, given Trump’s hardening position on Moscow over Ukraine, but there is speculation that the Arctic could be one area for Russia to work with the United States to offset its growing dependence on China.
“Arctic cooperation was raised by both American and Russian policymakers because both sides are aware of their common interests in the region,” said Pavel Devyatkin, senior associate at The Arctic Institute and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
“These include energy, shipping and possibly geopolitical interests,” he said, adding that “influential members” in the White House and the Kremlin were keen to develop Arctic cooperation “as a part of the normalisation of US-Russia relations”.
Xu Qingchao, Wutong Youth Professor at Beijing Language and Culture University, said these areas of potential Arctic cooperation would overlap with those between China and Russia.
“If the US and Russia resume and enhance economic cooperation in the Arctic, it will primarily focus on resources and energy, shipping routes and infrastructure – areas largely similar to those of China-Russia Arctic cooperation,” Xu said.
An exploration of possibilities in Arctic cooperation “illustrates that both the US and Russia are aware of and are actively adapting to changes in the Arctic’s geostrategic environment”, she added.
“Washington’s claims on the extended continental shelf, alongside its strategic interests in Greenland, Canada and key maritime passages, form a crucial part of the Trump administration’s overarching Arctic strategy, and Russia perceives this as a window of opportunity for a breakthrough in its relations with the US.”
Although China claims no territory within the Arctic Circle, international law allows China and other countries with an interest in the area to navigate, extract resources and conduct research in international waters of the Arctic. However, it is the eight Arctic coastal states – Canada, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the US and Russia – that maintain control over the vast majority of the region’s extractable resources and critical infrastructure, such as ports, roads and research stations.
That extends to vast and largely untapped oil and gas reserves as well as significant mineral reserves, such as iron ore, copper, nickel, diamonds and gold, along with generous deposits of rare earth elements, from neodymium to dysprosium, many of which are critical to today’s energy transition.
The summit in Alaska was not the first time that the US and Russia have signalled willingness to restart cooperation in the Arctic, where global warming has made areas that were formerly icebound more accessible for economic, strategic or even military use.
In February, Russian and American delegations met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss ways to improve relations. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the state-owned Russian Direct Investment Fund, said after the talks that collaboration on Arctic energy projects was among “specific areas of cooperation” they discussed, according to Politico.
And in May, speaking at the International Arctic Forum in Murmansk, Putin also showed interest in cooperating with foreign investors – including those from the West – in economic ventures in the Arctic, saying all parties would benefit.
Situated on the Kola peninsula, Russia’s northwestern-most territory, Murmansk is Russia’s largest city north of the Arctic Circle and the northernmost year-round ice-free port in Russia. It is the home port for Atomflot, the world’s only fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers that is crucial for operations on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). It also hosts the Northern Fleet and major submarine hubs.
Arctic bonds between Russia and the US go back more than a century in Alaska, which was part of Russia until Tsar Alexander II sold it to the US in 1867 for US$7.2 million. Because of Alaska, the US has become an Arctic nation, and its strategic location – with the Arctic Ocean to the north, the Pacific Ocean to the south and the Bering and Chukchi seas to the west – makes it a critical hub for rapid deployment in the Arctic and Indo-Pacific.
During his press conference with Trump, Putin recalled an episode from World War II when the US – under a lend-lease programme – transferred US-built aircraft and other equipment to the Soviet Union through Alaska.
“We will always remember other historical examples when our countries defeated common enemies together in the spirit of battle camaraderie and allyship that supported each other and facilitated each other,” Putin said. “I am sure that this heritage will help us rebuild and foster mutually beneficial and equal ties at this new stage, even during the hardest conditions.”
With more than 53 per cent of the Arctic Ocean coastline under its control, Russia has the largest amount of Arctic territory, and for a long time, Moscow has preferred Western Arctic states as partners to develop the far north.
But such cooperation came under intense scrutiny after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and to offset economic sanctions from the West, Moscow turned to China. The partnership with China in the Arctic expanded quickly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Now, Chinese operators dominate Arctic container shipping through the NSR, a frozen passage that only opens up in summer. Vessels carrying everything from crude oil to passenger cars sail through the lane, which offers shorter distances between Asia and Europe than existing maritime routes via the Suez Canal or land routes.
And services are expanding. Last month, a Chinese company launched the first Arctic express service from Qingdao, in the eastern province of Shandong, to Gdansk, Poland. A ship sailing through the Arctic from Ningbo in China is also expected in Felixstowe in Britain on October 10 after a voyage of only 18 days, less than half the time for the traditional route via the Suez Canal.
Chinese-Russian military cooperation is also increasing. In July last year, Chinese H-6K and Russian Tu-95MS bombers conducted a joint strategic aerial patrol over the Bering and Chukchi seas, the first such joint flights over the Bering Sea region near Alaska. About three months later, China’s coastguard conducted its first Arctic patrol in the Bering Sea with Russia’s border guard, prompting speculation about potential changes in Russia’s Arctic cooperation with China.
“Since 2022, Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation has expanded into areas where Moscow was previously unwilling to allow any Chinese presence, such as military and coastguard cooperation,” Patrik Andersson, an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre, wrote in a report in July.
“In parallel, cooperation has intensified in domains where engagement already existed, such as shipping, reaching levels that Russia had not previously been ready to accept.”
However, observers said the Arctic cooperation between China and Russia should not be overestimated.
Last month, a decade after an initial proposal in 2015, Gazprom announced a deal to build the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. But its Chinese partner, China National Petroleum Corporation, has remained mostly quiet, raising questions about how enthusiastic Beijing is about the project.
Tracing China’s investment in the eight Arctic states, a study in June by Harvard University’s Belfer Centre and Trent University in Canada found that several proposed joint projects between China and Russia have not played out, even though Russia has the largest amount of Chinese Arctic investment of all the Arctic states.
Among the stalled deals is a mining project in Russia’s Komi Republic, which was discussed between China Communications Construction Company and Russian Titanium Resources (Rustitan) in 2023, but never went forward.
Another is the Vostok Oil project – a flagship effort backed by Russia’s state-owned Rosneft that includes four oilfields, a pipeline and an Arctic port terminal. Despite invitations from the Russian government, Chinese investors appeared reluctant to invest in the, according to the report.
Observers said that mutual suspicion and Western sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine had loomed large.
“Russia and China have dramatically different views of Arctic policy, with Moscow being very sensitive to its regional sovereignty and Beijing pushing that the region should be a ‘common heritage of mankind’,” said Marc Lanteigne, a political-science professor at the Arctic University of Norway.
“Russia is nervous that Chinese power will grow to the point where it no longer needs Moscow to access the Arctic, and that eventually Russian sovereignty in the Arctic will erode due to Chinese economic pressure,” he said.
Even if collaboration with Russia in the Arctic could be seen as an opportunity for the US to counter China’s influence, Russia’s partnership with Beijing remained strong, said Devyatkin, with the Quincy Institute, who noted recent proposals by the Pentagon to prioritise homeland security over strategic competition with China, as reported by Politico earlier this month.
“Both the Russian and Chinese sides are seeking the best possible conditions for their cooperation with their counterparts,” Devyatkin said.
“Take the example of how long it took for a memorandum of intent for the Power of Siberia 2 project to materialise. There is still a lot of negotiation ahead for such projects that connect to the Arctic.”
Xu, in Beijing, said it remained to be seen if the rhetoric would translate into reality.
“Ultimately, the urgent need to restore bilateral relations is a current consensus for both the US and Russia, and their dialogue on Arctic economic cooperation is a component of that,” she said.
“It’s also telling that the wording focuses on ‘exploring possibilities’ – a pragmatic approach that signals both sides are cautiously feeling out the situation without any predetermined expectations for the result.”
Meanwhile, Beijing and Moscow will also need to step up efforts to overcome constraints such as extreme cold and technological limitations, which have been holding back cooperation in areas such as tourism and resource exploitation.
“In this regard, the competitive dynamic introduced by the involvement of a third party – such as the United States or Nordic countries – could act as an accelerator for substantial progress in China-Russia Arctic cooperation, rather than a hindrance.” - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
