China, currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has announced it aims to cut its emissions by 7 to 10 per cent by 2035, a cautious target analysts said left room for flexibility on future economic policy.
In a video address to United Nations climate talks on Wednesday – held during the annual UN General Assembly meeting – President Xi Jinping told his fellow leaders that China would finally reduce its emissions.
“Green and low-carbon energy and development transition are the trend of our era,” Xi proclaimed.
The announcement comes at a time when the United States is rolling back on its commitments, with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday calling climate change a “con job”, and belittling renewable energy and the concept of climate change.
In a thinly veiled swipe at the US, Xi said: “While some countries are acting against [the trend of fighting climate change], the international community should stay focused in the right direction.”
Xi’s latest emission pledge came on top of a previous goal of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 – a target that China’s own statistics suggest is on track.
The country also has a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060, a pledge that covers various greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.
Xi has pledged to increase the share of energy produced by non-fossil fuels to more than 30 per cent, install 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar power capacity and develop the national emissions trading market.
Zhang Weishi, an associate geography professor at Tianjin Normal University, said the latest target was a “credible and deliverable commitment” backed by a cohesive policy framework.
“For China, even a 7 per cent reduction entails cutting emissions by hundreds of millions of tonnes in absolute terms, a task far more challenging than it would be for most other countries,” he said.
In addition, Xi’s comments that China would “strive to do even better” indicated that the 7 to 10 per cent target was “a floor commitment, not a ceiling constraint”.
Yao Zhe, a global policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia, said the new goal marked a significant shift from a relative to an absolute emissions cap – a recommendation under the Paris Agreement for countries have reached peak emissions.
She described Xi’s latest pledge as a “conservative target” that took into account uncertainty over China’s future economic development and energy demand.
“Although the development of China’s clean technology industry has demonstrated significant potential for emissions reduction, policymakers have settled on this safe target range to allow room for future economic activities, including traditional industries,” she said.
Yao added that uncertainty surrounding the actions of other major economies, such as the US and the European Union, was also a key consideration.
“Accelerating decarbonisation inevitably comes with growing pains, and given the high level of international uncertainty, domestic policymakers prefer to retain some flexibility,” she said.
China remains the world’s top polluter and is responsible for 30 per cent of global emissions. However, its latest climate-related plans aim to promote clean and renewable energy production.
The country has also invested in climate and energy-related projects across Southeast Asia, South America and Africa, with Xi’s new emission reduction goal receiving recognition from other major economies.
Yao said China’s technical assessment of its targets was different from other carbon-intensive economies such as the European Union and India.
The EU is trying to finalise its 2035 interim emissions targets as part of its long-term plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
Yao said it was working backwards from the ultimate 2050 goal to decide what cuts were needed in the intervening years, while “China’s technical assessment of its target is more based on the current situation ... and makes projections about future possibilities”.
On Wednesday, the EU tentatively agreed to cut emissions by 66 to 72 per cent by 2035, aiming to formalise the terms later this year.
On the other hand, India, which has not yet proposed an absolute emissions reduction target, was focused on its relative goals – reducing carbon intensity – and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels, Zhang said.
Speaking at a separate event at the UN, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva praised Xi’s announcement, saying Beijing was moving “much further” in the energy transition than critics once thought possible.
“Brazil and Africa would not accept China being blamed [by the West for causing climate change], because there is a historical debt of the industrialised countries with the emission of greenhouse gases,” said Lula, referring to the West’s bid to shift blame to China in climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009.
Lula also welcomed Beijing’s decision to back Brazil’s US$125 billion Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a fund that will reward countries for preserving rainforest by paying up to US$4 per hectare of standing forest. This will include penalties for deforestation and a share of resources directed to Indigenous communities.
“I was happy with the announcement of the investment model,” Lula said, adding that China, as a major power, had shown it was possible to go further on climate commitments.
He expressed optimism ahead of COP30 in Belém this November, urging world leaders to treat the negotiations as “the hour of truth”. Lula said he had invited several heads of government, including Xi, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to attend. “I would love everyone to take part,” he said.
However, China’s new targets have also met with some scepticism.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said that the targets should be considered “lowball commitments”.
“Beijing’s commitment represents a cautious move that extends a long-standing political tradition of prioritising steady, predictable decision making,” Li said, adding that it would be outflanked over time by China’s rapid clean energy development.
“The headline target disappoints environmentalists, and it falls short of the climate leadership the world desperately needs. Yet, the good news is that in a world increasingly driven by self-interest, China is in a stronger position than most to drive climate action forward.”
-- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
