JAKARTA: Once a dominant force in the nation’s politics, Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo (pic) now appears to be facing an increasingly precarious position, with key allies under pressure, family members’ influence faltering and his successor President Prabowo Subianto making moves that suggest he is asserting independence from the former president’s shadow.
Since leaving office in October last year, there have been growing signs that Jokowi’s influence is waning amid speculations about the potential rift between him and Prabowo, whom he backed in last year’s election.
Prabowo won the election with Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice president.
In a surprising twist late last month, Prabowo granted clemency to two political opponents, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto and former trade minister Thomas Lembong, who had been convicted in corruption cases that they called politically motivated and driven by their criticism of Jokowi.
The pardons came just one day before the PDI-P, the only major party outside the ruling coalition and the former party of Jokowi, held its congress in Bali, where chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri declared the party a “counterbalance” and instructed party members to support “all government policies which benefit the people”.
Analysts said Prabowo’s unexpected decision to grant amnesty to political rivals signalled an effort to assert greater independence from Jokowi, whose influence was seen as notable during the early stages of Prabowo’s presidency.
“By involving more senior figures, in this case Megawati, in the equation, Prabowo can gradually distance himself from Jokowi without directly confronting him,” analyst Arif Susanto from Exposit Strategic said.
“It spreads the power more evenly […] and could benefit Prabowo. He can leverage his alliances with figures like Megawati and former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to increase his political independence,” he added.
Analysts have also pointed to Gibran’s faltering influence in the current administration and weakening of figures once central to Jokowi as signs that Jokowi might be in an increasingly precarious political position.
Despite holding the nation’s second-highest office, Gibran has appeared to struggle to play a meaningful role. It was only last month that Gibran was finally given a specific assignment from the President, which is to oversee the acceleration of development in Papua, the country’s easternmost part that is resource-rich but among the most impoverished regions.
Even so, the assignment has sparked speculation that Gibran is being pushed away from Jakarta’s power center to the sidelines.
Gibran’s mandate came on the heels of mounting pressures from a group of retired military generals, many of whom were Prabowo’s supporters in previous elections, who called for the House of Representatives to initiate a process for his impeachment, citing his legally flawed nomination as vice presidential candidate.
Several former ministers from Jokowi’s cabinet are also under legal pressure, including former education minister Nadiem Makarim and former religious affairs minister Yaqut Cholil Qoumas.
Nadiem had recently been questioned in two investigations into alleged corruption in his ministry, while Yaqut was questioned last Thursday in a graft probe into the ministry’s organising of last year’s haj programme.
There have also been growing calls for Prabowo to replace Jokowi-linked ministers in his cabinet amid public discontent with their performance. They include Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin, whose push to overhaul the healthcare system sparked backlash from medical professionals in May, and Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, who faced criticism for his handling of a nickel mining scandal in Raja Ampat in June.
“Jokowi’s power does appear to be slowly eroding, though this is a political process that takes time,” analyst Aditya Perdana from University of Indonesia said.
However, he cautioned against drawing premature conclusions. Aditya believed that Jokowi was unlikely to quietly accept any effort to “erode his influence” or marginalise him, describing the former leader as a seasoned political player “who is unlikely to relinquish influence without a fight”.
“Jokowi has never been someone who easily backs down,” Aditya said.
“I expect there will be some form of pushback. He still holds critical political leverage when it comes to Prabowo, and he knows well the track record of his former defence minister."
Prabowo has repeatedly denied a rift with Jokowi, saying earlier this month that such rumours were part of efforts to create division between him and his predecessor. Jokowi has also denied tensions with Prabowo. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
