Vice President Sara Duterte. - Photo: Inquirer file
MANILA: As results were still being tallied in Monday's (May 12) Philippine mid-term election, impeached Vice President Sara Duterte released a statement just before midnight telling supporters the outcome was "not what we had hoped for".
Analysts who spoke to AFP on Tuesday (May 13), however, suggested she may have emerged stronger than expected ahead of a Senate trial that will decide her political fate this summer.
Former president Rodrigo Duterte's daughter was impeached by the House of Representatives in February for "high crimes" including an alleged assassination plot against ally-turned-foe President Ferdinand Marcos, himself the son of a former president.
The 12 senators elected Monday will join 12 incumbents in serving as jurors at her impeachment trial, which could see her permanently barred from public office.
As of Tuesday, with over 90 percent of precincts reporting, five candidates aligned with the vice president's camp looked certain to secure seats.
"The chances of her being acquitted have just increased because of the elections," said Aries Arugay, a visiting senior fellow at Singapore's ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.
With a two-thirds majority required for a guilty verdict, Duterte needs nine votes to preserve any hope of a future presidential run.
With three incumbent senators already considered firm allies, there was "a good chance that the vote will be for an acquittal rather than a conviction", said Froilan C. Calilung, an assistant political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas.
But the fact candidates were currently aligned with Duterte was no guarantee of how they would vote at her trial, said Jean Franco, assistant chair of the University of the Philippines' political science department.
"It would be foolhardy to count on their permanent support," she warned.
- An 'energised' base -
Within little more than a month, two of the Marcos administration's top opponents had seemingly been removed from the Philippines' political chessboard.
After Sara Duterte's impeachment at a hearing overseen by House Speaker Martin Romualdez -- Marcos's cousin -- Rodrigo was arrested and transferred to The Hague to face charges tied to his deadly crackdown on drugs.
Filipinos, however, "have a special attachment to underdogs and persecuted leaders", said Anthony Lawrence Borja, associate professor at De La Salle University's political science and development studies department.
Ahead of the election, the Dutertes' predicament -- amplified widely by supporters on social media -- prodded a base that had been mostly dormant into action, according to Franco, who said they were "energised" by the patriarch's arrest.
"If it was an act to get rid of his political opponent, I think it backfired miserably on (Marcos)," Calilung said.
"The voters channeled their frustration with the (Marcos-aligned) candidates", said Arugay.
The Senate trial -- tentatively set for late July -- looks "less predictable now" in the wake of Monday's election, said Borja.
More senators, "especially those" with plans for presidential elections due in 2028, will find themselves "caught between Marcos Jr.'s waning popularity and control over patronage, and the resurgent popularity of the Dutertes," he said.
"Politicians are already looking at 2028 and ... how they will be able to solidify their chances by forming alliances, coalitions," Calilung agreed.
"It's going to be very fluid. I think from here on. Moving forward, a lot of changes could actually happen." - AFP
