Members of the Indian Border Security Force performing a ceremony at the border gates of India and Pakistan, at the Wagah border post, on April 25. - AFP
NEW DELHI: As tensions build between India and Pakistan over last week’s deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir, the focus is now turning to whether military conflict is a likelihood between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Though officials don’t expect the South Asian countries to launch a larger-scale offensive, partly because of Kashmir’s difficult mountainous terrain, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is under pressure to retaliate.
Last Tuesday, gunmen killed dozens of civilians in the part of Kashmir controlled by India, the bloodiest attack in the region in years.
Limited conflict between the nations remains a possibility. Ties have deteriorated rapidly since the attack, with India calling the incident an act of terrorism and holding Pakistan responsible for the carnage.
Islamabad denies a role, vowing to return any volley of fire from the India side of the border.
The US has also stepped in, attempting to act as mediator between the countries, which both lay claim to Kashmir and have fought wars over the region.
On paper, India has a much bigger military should conflict escalate, with 1,475,000 people in its armed forces, or more than twice the number in Pakistan, according to data compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
India also sets aside far more money for its military - about US$86 billion last year. That places it among the top five spenders globally, with a budget eight times that of Pakistan’s.
Even so, Kashmir’s rugged geography limits military options for both sides.
India already deploys a large portion of its armed forces to defend a long northern border with China, which has also clashed with New Delhi over disputed territory in the Himalayas. And Pakistan has been more focused on its border with Afghanistan, where militants are crossing over for attacks.
Shoring up drone and surveillance resources are a priority for both nations. Pakistan’s army said this week that its forces shot down an Indian spy drone along the disputed border.
For India, having to hold off both China and Pakistan - which sometimes work together - is another disadvantage, said Harsh Pant, vice president of the Observer Research Foundation, a think tank in New Delhi.
"India’s military is larger, but it has the strategic challenges of two borders to defend,” he said.
The stakes are high for confrontation between India and Pakistan. The countries each have about 170 nuclear warheads, according to an assessment from the Arms Control Association. For Pakistan, the arsenal is seen as a way of dissuading India - a much larger economy - from taking military action.
While the two nations are still busy churning out fissile material, both are also in a race to refine delivery systems for warheads that include missiles for longer-range strikes deep inside enemy territory.
India maintains a policy of "no first use” of nuclear weapons and has no declared capability of using tactical nuclear weapons, which are low-yield and for use on the battlefield.
Pakistan, however, has developed a tactical nuclear weapon - the Nasr (Hatf-9) ballistic missile - with a range of about 70km. It also reserves the right when it comes to first use.
Both countries are looking to create infrastructure that can launch a nuclear warhead via land, sea or air.
India has the advantage in terms of range. Its land-based, road-mobile Agni-V missile has an estimated reach of between 5,000km and 8,000km.
Pakistan’s Shaheen 3 missile, which is in development, has a potential range of about 2,7km, or enough to impact all of India depending on where it’s launched in Pakistan.
The countries are two of the biggest buyers of weapons from overseas, sourcing much of their equipment from Russia and China.
In recent years, India has turned to weapons makers in the US, France and other places, becoming the world’s largest importer of arms, according to data from Sipri, which stands for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
India’s reliance on Russia has decreased from 76% of its arms imports in 2009-2013 to 36% in 2019-2023, it said, as New Delhi seeks to modernise its systems with weapons from top defense firms in the US and Europe.
Pakistan has been trying to keep pace and is buying the bulk of its arms from China. Imports from China made up 82% of Pakistan’s stock from 2019-2023, compared to 51% from 2009-2012, Sipri said.
"The regional power disparity, accentuated by India’s expanding military machine, compelled Pakistan to explore strategies to mitigate its opponent’s conventional military dominance,” researcher Sardar Jahanzaib Ghalib wrote in a December paper for the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. - Bloomberg
