Scarcely two weeks into Donald Trump’s celebration of “Liberation Day” on April 2, America’s bustling maritime gateways have emerged as ground zero for the consequences of the US president’s unpredictable tariff policies.
Ports, logistics and trade-dependent businesses are finding their operations in disarray, while supply-chain analysts warn of greater uncertainty, rerouting, uneven port utilisation, slowed trade and job losses becoming the new norm.
“Buckle up, this is going to get really bumpy for us,” said Gene Seroka of the Port of Los Angeles, where goods from China account for nearly 45 per cent of total volume, on Friday.
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The adjacent ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach together handle roughly one-third of all containerised cargo entering the US. Any short-circuiting of their operations could have ripple effects at other ports worldwide, upending trade networks that have evolved over decades.
Since Trump’s election in November, Los Angeles has seen a jump in activity as US importers stockpile. The port moved more than 10 million containers in 2024, marking only the second time it cleared that level in its 116-year history.
As front-loading continued, the port handled more than 300,000 container units in March – up 1.6 per cent from a year earlier. From January-to-March, China logged a surplus of US$76.6 billion in units with the US.
But with US tariffs on China now at a cumulative 145 per cent, the slowdown is under way.
Seroka, citing conversations with associates in China and Southeast Asia, said “some globally famous brands have hit the pause button on shipments out of China for the next couple of weeks and maybe beyond”, without elaborating.
Brands like Apple and HP have reportedly halted shipments from mainland China.
Ships leaving China’s eastern coast take at least 14 days to reach the US West Coast. The Trump administration has exempted cargo loaded before April 9, provided it arrives by May 27.
Describing it as a “historic time”, Seroka expected container volumes at the port to dip by at least 10 per cent from as early as May and possibly fall further the rest of the year.
“With folks stopping exports from China because of these unbelievably high tariffs, that could alter these projections as well,” Seroka explained. “There’s not a lot of certainty because the policy is not that clear.”
The city of Los Angeles depends heavily on its port. More than 900,000 jobs are tied to it, encompassing transport, warehouses and port operators.
Smaller ports are also hard hit. Up the California coast, at the Port of Oakland, China accounts for about 29 per cent of all trade, making it the largest single source of imports.
Oakland’s proximity to California’s Central Valley, a key agricultural producer, means it is the top US port for refrigerated exports like beef, pork and poultry.
Robert Bernardo, a Port of Oakland spokesman, said “instability and uncertainty negatively impact our maritime partners because shippers rely on predictability”.
The port’s authorities were “closely monitoring the evolving tariff situation which remains uncertain, especially regarding global countermeasures, deals and retaliation”, he added.
For some on the docks, the damage is unmistakable. According to Steve Parker, a longshoreman for 20 years in Oakland, the port normally had 300 to 400 jobs “and now it’s down to maybe 100 jobs a day”.
“A bunch of us [are] out there waiting for a job,” Parker told a local TV station on Monday. “It’s affecting those people who really want to feed their family and come to work, so we hope it’ll open up.”
Analysts have warned that current US–China trade tensions, and the resulting loss of business from China will make it harder for West Coast ports to compete with East Coast ports.
The Atlantic-facing counterparts benefit from shorter shipping routes and rising volumes from Europe and Southeast Asia, as more companies shift away from China and reroute to sidestep hefty new tariffs.
Now, the West Coast ports “will miss out in a big way because that is not the optimal route for those goods to come into the country”, said Nick Vyas of the University of Southern California.
“East Coast ports will certainly benefit from the restricting and repurposing of these new trade deals”, he added.
Yet even in the short term, East Coast ports take a hit.
Tim Avanzato of Lanca Sales, a New Jersey-based importer and exporter of food packaging, said he suspended all shipments from China. He said every other importer in the state to whom he has spoken faces the same challenge.
“We put a lot of orders on hold and cancelled some,” Avanzato added, calling it a “manufactured crisis” unlike 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic disrupted the international movement of goods.
He said his company, which has nearly 15 per cent of its business out of China, was hoping to find replacement products from other countries in the next 30 days to avoid paying hefty import levies.
Avanzato explained that as importers cancel or pause shipments from China nearby ports and the jobs that depend on them would be affected.
“Without a doubt, the import volumes will definitely drop,” he said, translating into less work for truckers, longshoremen and “everybody”.
If Avanzato is right, New Jersey stands to suffer considerably. Transport, distribution and logistics comprised 12.5 per cent of all jobs in the state in 2020, according to the latest government data.
Similar to stockpiling on the West Coast, the Port of New York and New Jersey saw an increase in cargo it handled by about 10 per cent from November 2024 to February 2025, compared to the same time period a year earlier.
The port authority of New York and New Jersey told the Post that so far there “have been no impacts on day-to-day operations at the port” due to tariffs. However, this assessment conflicts with reports from others in the industry.
John Nardi of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey told a local news outlet that terminal operators, ocean carriers and stevedores were “seeing a drop in overall bookings”.
Sonar, a platform that tracks ocean freight data, showed a sharp decline in shipping activity, with daily bookings on the China–US Pacific route down 25 per cent from last year.
In addition, global container bookings fell 18.4 per cent between March 30 and April 8.
And in the week after “Liberation Day”, container bookings into the US plunged 67 per cent compared to the week before, according to Vizion’s TradeView data as reported by maritime news outlet Splash, with export bookings contracting 40 per cent.
Shippers were reacting to the tariffs, particularly on the trans-Pacific trade, “because when you have tariff rates of 125 to 145 per cent it effectively shuts down trade to some extent”, said Joe Kramek of the World Shipping Council.
“What we have presently is two things that you know both traders and markets hate, which is uncertainty and unpredictability,” added Kramek.
Amid the turmoil, analysts anticipate that how Washington and Beijing choose to act, or not, could have dire repercussions.
Vyas of the University of Southern California said it would be “devastating” for world trade and global supply chains if Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping “both wait to see who’s going to blink first”.
Avanzato of Lanca Sales said it has been “extremely difficult” to plan next steps as US–China trade tensions escalate, while agreements with other countries are in limbo and the 90-day pause clock continues to tick.
“We’re always trying to find new products anyway, but now we’re going to find new countries and it’s just difficult because you can’t plan,” he said.
Avanzato added that his company was “trying to be optimistic” and hoping that “everybody works out deals with the administration and we go back to business as usual”.
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