As Beijing and Washington battle it out in a rapidly escalating and brutal tit-for-tat tariff war, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how the two leaders could end up at the negotiating table.
This is a moment when diplomatic backchannels could have an outsize role to play, according to observers, with some suggesting that such channels “might be the only way to go”.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of another tariff hike on Chinese imports – to a total 125 per cent – even as he placed a 90-day pause on those aimed at most other countries, only deepened the rift between the two largest economies.
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But speaking to reporters after the announcement, Trump also signalled that he did not expect to raise the levies on Chinese goods any higher, saying that he “can’t imagine” that happening.
“China wants to make a deal. They just don’t know how quite to go about it. You know, it’s one of those things, quite proud people,” he said.
“President Xi [Jinping] is a proud man. I know him very well. They don’t know quite how to go about it, but they’ll figure it out. They’re in the process of figuring it out.”
Earlier on Wednesday, China had raised its tariffs on US imports to 84 per cent, with the levy expected to take effect on Thursday. Beijing promised that it would firmly defend the national interest and vowed to “fight to the end”.
According to Sun Yun, director of the Stimson Centre’s China programme in Washington, it would be difficult for direct communications between the two leaders to happen now, because one side would have to make the first move and take a step back.
“Diplomatic backchannels are helpful, but in this case, no one can speak for Xi, and even less so, for Trump. That will be the challenge,” she said.
“We potentially will see the escalation of the trade war and, even more unfortunate, the spillover effect into other domains. That will be the most serious risk if there is no de-escalation soon.”
Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, suggested that backchannels could be helpful in conveying sentiments and signals, potentially helping the two sides to cool down.
But he also noted that Trump’s style of using social media meant that there would be limited room for such backchannels.
Since Trump’s return to the White House, analysts have touted the importance of backchannel diplomacy, given his choices of several China hawks to fill key roles in the administration.
At one point, a roster of billionaires appeared to be available as potential channels of communication, including Tesla boss Elon Musk and Blackstone chief executive Stephen Schwarzman.
According to The Washington Post, Musk made direct but unsuccessful appeals to Trump for him to reverse the so-called reciprocal tariffs that were imposed last week.
While markets were in turmoil, a meeting took place in Beijing on Tuesday that could be seen as an extension of backchannel diplomacy.
Brookings Institution chair emeritus John Thornton – who played a key role in the early months of the Joe Biden administration – was received by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng.
According to a Chinese readout of the meeting, they exchanged views on US-China economic and trade relations, as well as the macroeconomic situation, with Thornton noting that US-China ties were “very important”.
“Thornton said he would continue to play a role in ... promoting the stability of the relations between the two countries,” the statement said.
Danny Quah, dean of the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said it was possible that Trump and Xi may want to sit down and talk, especially when things get “really bad economically”.
But for now, Quah said he could see no sign that Trump would “want to show any kind of sanity and back down”.
“At the same time Beijing has taken the high road and rightly will be unable to explain to the people how it could even consider backing down,” he added.
“Backchannels might be the only way to go. But even if they can reach agreement there, it’s unclear what story they can tell, so things look grim for now.”
More from South China Morning Post:
- Trump’s tariffs and China targeting in focus as House lawmakers fret over alliances
- China prepared to ‘strike back’, state media says as new tariffs kick in
- Why China’s grip on American life will stay unshaken, Trump tariffs or not
- Elon Musk calls Trump adviser Peter Navarro ‘dumber than a sack of bricks’ over tariffs
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