Donald Trump’s sweeping cuts to the US federal government may hamper China’s efforts to establish regular communication channels with the new administration, according to diplomatic observers.
The CIA has offered its employees the opportunity to resign in return for about eight months’ wages and benefits, with similar offers being made to staff at four other intelligence agencies.
Critics of the cuts – which aim to slash federal budgets by 5-10 per cent – have warned of serious disruption to US government activities, while some observers in China said they would add a further layer of uncertainty to relations between the two countries.
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However, others said the impact would not alter the White House’s focus on China as the main rival to the United States and predicted it would not lead to fundamental policy shifts.
“China, of course, [is] at a loss to find minimal communication channels, though any channel could not make him nicer to Beijing, especially when so many US allies and partners [are] inclined to give way to him,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.
Trump’s efforts to consolidate his personal power by tearing down government agencies have limited Beijing’s options, so it should focus on domestic matters to build up an “appearance of strength and willpower vis-a-vis this ruffian”, Shi added.
The Trump administration has yet to reveal its main strategy towards China and the two sides have not outlined the workings of their communications channels.
Since announcing 10 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods – a move that prompted countermeasures from Beijing – Trump has sent mixed signals about communicating with China, while Beijing has said only that talks should be based on “equality and mutual respect”.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, said the White House would still be focused on the competition with China, and relations “definitely face significant challenges during his term”.
“Trump is very clear that he must streamline and simplify personnel and agencies, with the goal of maintaining America’s strength [to counter China], rather than weakening it,” he said.
“All domestic and foreign policy issues are connected to China, just in different ways — whether they are direct, indirect, long-term, short-term, or with varying degrees of urgency.”
It is not clear how many CIA employees will be affected by the cuts and the number of intelligence officers is classified.
The agency’s new director John Ratcliffe, one of the few national security officials to return from Trump’s first administration, has pledged to intensify the focus on China.
He told his confirmation hearing he would continue the “good work” of his predecessor William Burns, under whose leadership the CIA created a China mission centre to reorient the agency’s priorities and budget to focus on Beijing.
The CIA has reportedly imposed a hiring freeze, but the Wall Street Journal reported that one of Ratcliffe’s aides had said that those who had the right background to tackle the White House’s priorities – which include China and trade – would still be brought on board.
Zhu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University’s school of international studies, downplayed concerns about the impact on engagement over the short run. But he said China remained the most important strategic competitor to the US and Washington would not make fundamental changes to its policy.
“There’s also a claim that if Trump creates more controversy and conflict domestically, he might become tougher on China to shift the focus away from domestic issues.
“While this possibility can’t be ruled out, it’s unlikely because, at this moment, the most urgent foreign and political issues the US faces are not about China,” he said, citing the recent focus on issues including Canada, Mexico and Panama.
Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, said Beijing should avoid overreacting.
“It would also be wise to strengthen ties between Chinese provincial governments and individual US states, as well as repair and deepen relations with non-American Western partners,” he said.
Additional reporting by Enoch Wong
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