JAKARTA (Bloomberg): Indonesia’s moves to ease concern over the nation’s fiscal outlook and growing bets for more Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts sent the rupiah on its best rally in almost eight years.
The rupiah rose as much as 0.4% to 16,135 per dollar on Friday (July 12), set for an eighth day of gains, which would be the longest rally since September 2016.
President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s team sought to placate investors’ worries over debt and fiscal policies on Thursday, pledging to maintain spending caps despite the incoming leader’s brother saying that the debt ratio would be raised.
The prospect of a US rate cut coming as early as September is also boosting emerging-market currencies, with the Malaysian ringgit set for its best run of gains in 17 months.
"The incoming Prabowo team is going on an offensive to undo perception that the new incoming government is not going to be prudent, that the Indonesian finances will be prudent still at the higher debt-to-gross domestic product ratio,” said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign-exchange research at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore. "Indonesia to me still is a bright spot in the region as the global economy picks up.”
Still, the rally may not last should US rate cuts fail to materialize while higher global food prices and the threat of new US trade tariffs also pose risks, Supaat said.
He forecasts the currency at 16,600 per dollar at end-September.
Prabowo may need to take more steps to assure investors over his fiscal plans, according to Toronto-Dominion Bank.
"Investors may not be convinced of this turnaround,” said Alex Loo, a macro strategist at TD in Singapore, who expects the currency to fall to 16,350 by quarter-end. "The uncertainty regarding the fiscal plans will weigh on investors’ mind in the months ahead.”
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