Workers sort and fold ballots for the 2024 legislative election on Dec. 13, 2023, in Denpasar, Bali. - Antara
JAKARTA: The February legislative race remains a toss-up between the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and its staunch rival Gerindra Party, which has forged closer ties to President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, surveys show, as they compete to dominate the House of Representatives after Jokowi’s tenure ends.
The PDI-P has dominated the legislative elections for the past decade. But it has seen its dominance being challenged by rival Gerindra, which leads a nine-way alliance backing frontrunner Prabowo Subianto that casts itself as “team Jokowi”.
Public opinion polls show Gerindra has been increasingly closing the gap with the PDI-P ahead of February’s presidential and legislative elections.
A mid-December survey released by the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Wednesday (Dec 27) found that the PDI-P remained the most popular party, although it commanded a narrowing lead over its nearest challenger, Gerindra.
The survey, conducted between Dec 13 and 18, showed that the PDI-P was the most electable party, with public support of 16.4 per cent, while Gerindra, which is led by Prabowo, followed close behind with an electability rating of 14.6 per cent.
The CSIS polled 1,300 people of voting age in person nationwide after the first presidential debate, and the results had a 2.7 per cent margin of error at a 95 per cent confidence level.
“Even though the PDI-P came out on top in our recent poll, the situation is still very dynamic and is still prone to change. It is very possible that Gerindra could catch up,” CSIS political department head Arya Fernandes told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.
Not to mention, he said, the PDI-P’s lead over Gerindra was “increasingly narrowing [in other surveys by various pollsters], which should serve as an alarm for the PDI-P to recalibrate its strategy”.
After the President’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka was cleared to run as the vice presidential candidate to Prabowo on the PDI-P rival’s ticket, the ruling party has distanced itself from its prominent member Jokowi and even gone on the offensive against the popular outgoing leader.
PDI-P members have insinuated that the President had “manipulated” the law to pursue his ambition of building his own political dynasty before stepping down next year.
The PDI-P’s attacks against Jokowi, however, appeared to backfire and further eroded support for the party, with a growing contingent of Jokowi supporters, who voted for him in the past two presidential elections, shifting their support to Defence Minister Prabowo and his Gerindra Party, analysts said.
Of the nine parties with representatives in the legislature, the PDI-P holds the largest number of House seats, with 128 of 575 seats. Gerindra has the third most seats, at 78, and the NasDem Party, which leads an electoral alliance for next year’s presidential election backing candidate Anies Baswedan, is in fifth place, with 59 seats.
But the Gerindra-led alliance has created a political partnership that currently controls 261 House seats, the most of any electoral alliance backing candidates in the three-way presidential race. NasDem controls the second largest grouping in the House, with 162 seats, and the PDI-P is now left with the smallest alliance, at 157 seats.
Political analysts however said it was too soon to claim which electoral alliance will dominate the House, given the possibility of a runoff presidential race that could see a realignment of political alliances.
Another survey from pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia showed the PDI-P neck-and-neck with Gerindra if the legislative election were to be held in late December. The PDI-P topped the poll with 19.1 per cent of electability, but led only a small margin over Gerindra, support of which stood at 18.2 per cent.
The survey was based on telephone interviews with 1,217 people of voting age from Dec 23 to 24 after the second election debate, with a margin of error of 2.9 per cent and a 95 per cent confidence interval.
“In general, we find a pattern in which the PDI-P has been in a statistical dead heat [with Gerindra],” Indikator Politik executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said during the launch of the survey on Tuesday.
“We don't know which party is leading between these two because the difference is still within the margin of error.”
The survey also found the PDI-P was on a downward trend despite the party seeing a rise in electability not long after its chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri announced that it nominated popular former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo as its presidential candidate.
Gerindra, meanwhile, has been enjoying an upward trend since last year. A survey conducted in early December by the research arm of Kompas also found the electability of the PDI-P slipped to 18.3 per cent and was overtaken by Prabowo’s Gerindra, which is now at the top of the poll with 21.9 per cent.
After its popularity took a dip, PDI-P, and Ganjar, recently changed their tune on their tough rhetoric against Jokowi, who has managed to keep a high approval rating in his final years.
“Like it or not, the PDI-P must now work hard to solidify its base if it still wants to dominate the legislative race,” Arya said. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
