US spy chiefs defend Russia-Ukraine intelligence, say China is even tougher to assess

US spy masters drew criticism at a Senate hearing on Tuesday for failing to predict the poor showing of the Russian military in Ukraine and vastly underestimating the willingness of the Afghan military to fight after the US withdrew in August.

While members of the Senate Armed Services Committee acknowledged that the Central Intelligence Agency, Defence Intelligence Agency and other spy agencies did well predicting Russia’s invasion, they fell short on other counts. These included overrating Russian morale, training, doctrine and the quality of its non-commissioned officers – and underestimating the resolve of Ukrainian forces to fight back on home territory.