JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network): Public approval of President Joko Widodo (pic) has fallen nearly 12 percentage points in the past two months, according to a survey conducted by Indikator Politik Indonesia at the height of soaring prices of basic commodities, particularly cooking oil.
The survey polled 1,220 people of voting age in person nationwide between April 14 and 19, before the government announced a ban on exports of cooking oil and its raw materials.
It was also conducted before the Attorney General's Office (AGO) named suspects in the alleged corruption case reportedly related to a scarcity of cooking oil and its subsequent high price on the local market.
The poll found that Widodo's approval rating had fallen to 59.9 per cent in April from 71.7 per cent in February and 75.3 per cent in early January, when the prices of staple goods, particularly cooking oil, were relatively low.
"Not to mention that people at the time were happy with how (the government) handled the pandemic (as the Delta fuelled-wave of coronavirus infections subsided)," Indikator Politik executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said on Tuesday (April 26).
The January rating was the highest in Widodo's seven years in office, while the April rating was only slightly higher than his last year's record low of 59.3 per cent in July, during the worst of the Delta-fuelled wave.
The government had introduced a price cap for packaged cooking oil in early January to keep the staple food affordable despite soaring global crude palm oil (CPO) prices, but revoked it in March in favour of a direct cash transfer scheme.
The revocation led to soaring cooking oil prices that month.
Also in January, the government implemented a domestic market obligation (DMO) policy that required CPO producers to sell a portion of their planned exports at home at certain prices, to keep cooking oil affordable.
The government revoked the DMO in March in favour of higher palm oil export levies.
Violations of the DMO policy in the issuing of palm oil export permits are also at the heart of the alleged corruption case currently being handled by the AGO.
Soaring prices of basic commodities, particularly the much sought-after cooking oil, were one of the main reasons that contributed to Widodo's declining approval rating, the survey found.
"If (he) wants to bring it back, (his administration) must achieve breakthroughs on these fronts: Corruption eradication, particularly in cooking oil and the national economy, inflation and cooking oil scarcity must be reduced," Burhanuddin said.
A similar trend also appeared in two different recent polls, which found that Indonesians have become more pessimistic about the economy.
A survey released on Monday by Litbang Kompas, the research arm of Kompas daily, found 66.3 per cent of respondents did not think the government would be able to control the increase in prices of basic commodities, while 32 per cent thought otherwise and the remaining 2.7 per cent were neutral.
It also found that 43.8 per cent of respondents believed that the government would not be able to ensure the availability of goods during the Ramadan fasting month, while 53.5 per cent said otherwise and 1.2 per cent were neutral.
The survey was based on telephone interviews conducted from April 5 to 9 with 504 people of voting age throughout the country.
The findings came as cooking oil prices rose by more than 70 per cent annually, data from the Trade Ministry show.
People have had to stand in line to buy limited supplies of bulk cooking oil at government-capped prices, set at about half the market price.
The prices of other staples like soybeans, sugar and eggs also rose by between 50 and 90 per cent annually a week before Ramadan, which usually sees price hikes as demand grows for these commodities.
The survey found a general perception that Widodo's administration has been paying less attention to the economic hardship experienced by many Indonesians and focusing too much on political matters instead.
About 51.3 per cent of respondents said the government was prioritising the construction of the new capital city more than the economy, 40.7 per cent said it was putting more focus on the third-term extension plans and 56.8 per cent said it was focusing more on other political issues.
"Prioritising the people today is very important if the government does not want to lose the public's trust.
"The hardships caused by the scarcity of basic commodities has aroused a degree of pessimism," the survey concluded as quoted from Kompas.
Another poll conducted in mid-April and released on Monday by Charta Politika found public optimism about the economic situation over the next year plunged from 72.9 per cent in November of last year to 59.6 per cent this month, the lowest in the past year.
A total of 1,220 eligible voters were interviewed in person for the survey.
"Looking at the data, this is not the worst situation compared with that of May 2020. But we still saw a decline in optimism in the last three surveys (after the November poll)," Yunarto Wijaya of Charta Politika said.
"This is a warning sign as the figure had already fallen below 60 per cent."
Most of the respondents were still satisfied with Widodo's leadership as he enjoyed a 62.9 per cent approval rating in April this year, but the rating has fallen by 8.8 percentage points from 71.7 per cent in January as concerns about rising staple goods prices undermined public confidence.
Respondents were mostly dissatisfied with the government's policies in making basic needs more affordable, with 47.6 per cent saying rising prices were the main concern.
Yunarto said that a Cabinet shakeup and "a change in management" were needed to regain public confidence. "(A Cabinet reshuffle) can serve as a stimulus to restore public satisfaction with the government," he said.
"Not in a sense of reorganising the coalition of political parties but rather it must be in the context of responding to the problems faced by the people regarding very basic issues such as the need for food."
