KUALA LUMPUR: S&P Global Ratings Economics group has revised its assessment of the risk of a recession in the United States to 21%, from 16% three months ago due to the flattening of the yield curve.
Although economic indicators continue to point to a sustained economic expansion, "heightened investor concerns over global economic developments led to market volatility and disruptions late last year”, says US chief economist at S&P Global, Beth Ann Bovino.
“This leaves a mixed picture for the second oldest expansion in US history,” she said in the article titled “US business cycle barometer” issued on Thursday.
S&P Global Economics carried out the qualitative assessment as part of its Business Cycle Barometer, a quarterly publication that looks at 10 leading indicators of near-term economic growth.
Two indicators turned negative this quarter for the first time since mid-2017, when the group began to look at these metrics.
"Financial conditions have eased in recent weeks, stemming from a significantly more dovish communication by the Fed," said Bovino.
"If the easing persists, the quantitative assessment will likely decline in the coming months."
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