New global population trends are worrisome

Demography matters. But it’s not destiny as the French philosopher, Auguste Comte, would have us believe. Other things also matter. Certainly its impact endures far longer and has far wide-ranging effects. Nevertheless, even demographic trends do change. What’s happening right now is extraordinary. The UN’s “State of World Population 2011” points to ominous trends. The world’s population reached 7 billion on October 31, 2011, of which only 1.2 billion (17%) live in the rich world; 5.8 billion (83%) are found in developing economies including 851 million in the least developed.

More than 4 billion (57% of the world) reside in Asia and the Pacific. What’s remarkable today is that about 900 million people are over the age of 60 worldwide; by 2050, they will rise to 2.4 billion as population ages and live longer, and birth-rates slide further. The 20th century was marked by the greatest fall in death rates. Low birth rates look likely to be the defining demographic event of the 21st century. Total fertility rate (TFR) now averages below 2.1 in more than 70 nations (representing 50% of world population). This level of TFR measures number of births the average woman would need to bear over her life time to prevent population from falling in the long run. All European nations have low TFRs today and so do many Asian economies, including Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan. Russia, Japan and Italy now have the lowest TFRs – typically not more than one child during her life time. Without strong immigration, their populations will fall. The US, by contrast, still has a growing population because its TFR is at about the 2.1 replacement level and continues to attract significant immigration.